Cipolla – Hanescu

Flavio Cipolla and Victor Hanescu will square off in the Banja Luka challenger quarterfinals, a very important match for two players that are struggling to find long lost form.

Cipolla, who in his best days was a top 75 player on the ATP tour, has fallen as low as being ranked outside the Top 400 – even having to play qualifications to get into challenger main draws. The Italian did get some decent wins in the last few months (Golubev, Carballes Baena) but his form is poor, lost 3 out of the last 4 matches and he needed a wildcard to get into Banja Luka. He made the most of it, beating qualifier Sancic and top seed Gimeno-Traver without losing a set. Indeed, none of the opponents posed much of a threat (Gimeno was not in his best day), but Cipolla played good tennis and managed to held Gimeno-Traver at bay everytime the Spaniard was beginning to raise his level.

Former number 26 in the world, Victor Hanescu, is apparently seeing his last years on tour at age 34. The Romanian fell outside of the Top 200 this season, especially due to some horrible mid-season form. Recently he is improving a bit, but still not good enough. Hanescu was able to get 1-2 wins in challengers recently, but never passed the quarterfinal stage, losing even when he was expected to finally break trough. Last week he lost to Sijsling in the Alphen quarterfinals. This week Hanescu defeated Cachin and Bourgue in straight sets, pretty easy actually, but it has to be said that the Romanian was not too impressive.

Having watched Hanescu, he`s clearly struggling with the physical aspect. This was always his biggest problem, but now at 34 years old and out of form, his lack of physical condition and poor movement is painfully obvious. He did make some shots in the past two rounds and had a great first serve percentage, but the easy wins came mostly due to the futility of Cachin and Bourgue. You could see the likes of Bourgue running outside the camera frame to return balls, while Hanescu was barely able to get in the doubles court zone.

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The Romanian leas the H2H 2-0 (1-0 on clay), but both meetings were extremely close and took place back in 2012 and 2013, when Hanescu was roaming around no 50 in the world, playing at a totally different level of tennis. Cipolla was better as well, but the point is that the Head 2 Head does not hold much relevance for this bet.

Hanescu is certainly the better player and even though he`s out of form, Cipolla is not in better form either. However, one can`t say that Hanescu played better tennis this week. Given the way Hanescu has struggled this season and particularly taking into account his susceptibility to lose when you least expect it (or when he`s close to making a run), I reckon the odds on Cipolla are pure gold here. It has to be said that Victor Hanescu won 3 consecutive matches in a week just one time this season (on hard courts) and never on the main draw.

The Romanian deserves to be a favorite, but pricing him at 1.35 against a player that is having a very good week and just beat Gimeno-Traver is just crazy. If Cipolla plays at a similar level to how he did last round, he will go toe to toe with Hanescu and I firmly believe that if he pushed this to 3 sets, he will run away with the match due to Hanescu’s poor physical condition. Victor is playing decent, but not great, he`s miles away from what he can normally do on the court (even at 34) and this might not be enough for the win today.

All in all, this seems like it could really go either way. Obviously Victor Hanescu has the first chance, but Cipolla to win is a clear value bet, so that is my tip on this match. No point in taking handicaps, because neither player is solid enough to warrant an investment at low odds. Prediction: Flavio Cipolla – Victor Hanescu 1-6 7-6 6-4.

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Pick: Cipolla
Odds: 3.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 12.42
Event date: 18 September