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Swiss champions FC Basel will try to take advantage of Lech Poznan’s problems when the two teams meet in Group I of the Uefa Europa League. Basel leads the group after a marvelous 2-1 win at Fiorentina, while Lech only managed a 0-0 home draw with Belenenses.
Very interestingly, these two sides already met this season in the Champions League qualifiers, with the Swiss side winning both H2H games. Basel qualified with a double victory, 3-1 away in the first match, followed by a comfortable 1-0 at home.
FC Basel missed out on Champions League football this year, via away goals, at the hands of Maccabi Tel Aviv, but their Europa League campaign debuted in brilliant fashion. Basel managed to defeat a red hot Fiorentina side in Italy and actually deserved that win. Basel played good football, dominating possession (also because the fell behind early) and limiting Fiorentina’s chances to score. There`s no doubt that the Swiss side is in fine form and their stats this season are nothing short of amazing: 14 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 17 games in all competitions! The two draws were against Maccabi Tel Aviv, with the loss coming recently at Young Boys, 3-4.
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An even more impressive stat for Basel is that they scored in all 17 games this season and scored at least twice in 15 of them – which is incredibly impressive but also surprising for a side that usually relied more on defense.
Lech Poznan is in a dreadful moment right now. The Polish side won the league last year ahead of Legia Warsaw, but this season started in horrible fashion (losing ugly to Basel) and continued in the same way. Lech is on the last place in Poland with a single win in 10 matches, the atmosphere is very poor in the locker room with the key players desperate to leave and there`s some talk about financial issues as well. The visitors are expected to use some rotation today, their focus is clearly on the league right now, especially with an important game coming up on Sunday.
Anything else but a comfortable Basel win would be a surprise. The Swiss side dominated Lech Poznan less than 2 months ago and the situation for the visitors only got worse, while Basel is seemingly playing better and better. The hosts are also fully focused on the competition and given their offensive stats this season they are likely to cover a 1 goal handicap. Apparently there is no place for an upset here, even if Lech would not have so many issues, Basel would still be a solid favorite to win this at home.
My tip is a Basel win with a 1 goal asian handicap, staying a bit on the safe side in case of a 1 goal victory. Prediction: FC Basel – Lech Poznan 3-0.
Pick: FC Basel (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.81 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.29
Event date: 1 October
