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Bosnia Herzegovina meets Wales in a do or die game for the hosts, while the British side will book qualification to Euro 2016 with a draw at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.
Bosnia has played well of late, winning 3 of the last 4 Euro 2016 qualifying matches, but the good form only grants them an outside chance to qualify. Bosnia is 2 points behind third placed Israel, with the first two places out of reach. The hosts are paying dues to the horrible start of the campaign, which could well prove to be their downfall. Last time out, Bosnia-Herzegovina recorded a 3-0 home win over Andorra.
With 8 games gone in this group, Wales is topping the standings with a 9-2 goal difference. The Brits have been all about defense and tactical consistency in this campaign and the plan worked to perfection because they had Gareth Bale to make the difference. Without him, Wales would very likely have about 5 goalless draws so far – they already have 3, including a 0-0 against Israel in the last matchday.
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Team news & lineups:
The big news is that Bosnia-Herzegovina might miss Edin Dzeko. I believe he will start in a match of such importance, but his fitness is questionable. Everton’s Besic is out for the hosts. Wales has a couple of absences of its own, but will have its two stars Ramsey and Bale available.
Bosnia: Begovic – Kolasinac, Mujdza, Hajrovic, Spahic – Pjanic, Visca, Medunjanin – Lulic, Dzeko, Ibisevic
Wales: Hennessey – Gunter, Williams, Davies, Richards – Taylor, King, Edwards, Ramsey – Bale, Robson-Kanu
Bosnia is not exactly the team to sit back and defend, they already leaked 10 goals in 8 group games, scoring 12 in the process. The under / over market looks appealing here, but I am not talking about the over! I fully expect under 2,5 goals to be scored, just like it was in Cardiff, when the two teams finished 0-0.
Bosnia has to win this, but we know that in today’s football having to win does not mean going all out attack – especially with Bosnia being very aware of the massive counter attacking threat that Wales poses. Expect Bosnia to play a cautious game, looking to try and keep a clean sheet, stay in the game for as long as possible and eventually find the winning goal(s) over the 90 minutes. As for Wales, they need a point and they will come to get exactly that. The Brits have been rock solid defensively so far and have played a very organized brand of football, so with them coming to get a draw, it`s doubtful they will allow this match to become open.
Expect a cagey affair with a lot of tension, interruptions and an overall risk-free approach from both teams. I don`t see any possible scenario that would periclitate the under: if Bosnia scores early they will defend the lead, if Wales scores early than they will surely park the buss big time, making a comeback very difficult even for an all out attacking Bosnia. And no early goal would obviously be good for the under. All in all, my tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Bosnia-Herzegovina – Wales 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.76 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.08
Event date: 10 October
