Luxembourg – Slovakia

Slovakia was as good as qualified to Euro 2016 a couple of months ago, but poor results in the last matches have now forced the visitors to win in Luxembourg if they want to be sure of advancing. The hosts will look to upset Slovakia and build on what has been a decent qualifying campaign.

Luxembourg gained 4 points so far, sitting in front of Macedonia in the standings. Like most European minnows, Luxembourg has improved in the past years and are not a team to be taken lightly. They are on the back of a 4-0 loss in Spain, but they were only down 1-0 until the last 25 minutes. However, despite the improvements, it has to be said that Luxembourg lost their matches against the good teams in the group rather clearly – including a one sided 3-0 defeat in Slovakia earlier in the campaign

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The visitors are tied in points with Ukraine on the 2-3 places, but they have the advantage in direct meetings so they will go to Euro 2016 with a win today. A draw would probably suffice as well, as Ukraine will have a tough task in beating Spain, but obviously Slovakia can`t take any risks. They could also be involved in the discussion for the best 3rd placed team if they somehow concede the second place to Ukraine. The visitors only have one point in the last 3 matches. If losing to Spain and drawing with Ukraine in the previous NT roundup was understandable, Slovakia played a dradful match three days ago to lose 0-1 against Belarus at home – also having an extra man for 25 minutes.

Slovakia really needs to pick up their game after the horrible loss to Belarus and I believe they will. The visitors have been very solid in this campaign and it`s safe to say that the result on Friday was an accident – and one can also argue that Slovakia did not deserve to lose. Luxembourg is an honest, hard working side but they haven`t been able to challenge Spain, Slovakia or Ukraine in this group, losing by 3 or more goals in all 5 matches against these sides. The hosts were only able to play close matches against Belarus at home and in the double against Macedonia.

Slovakia enters this game with great motivation and they should prove too strong for the hosts. A handicap win for the visitors seems on the cards and the odds are very tasty.

My tip is Slovakia to win with a 1,25 goal asian handicap. I`m taking the 1,25 spread instead of the 1,5 for extra security, but I will also raise the stakes and go with a solid 9 units. Prediction: Luxembourg – Slovakia 0-2.

Pick: Slovakia (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.80 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 12 October