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The 2015 Rugby World Cup quarterfinals will kick off with the match between South Africa and Wales – a mouthwatering prospect between two of finest teams in rugby, that have both impressed so far in the competition. With two of the quarterfinals set to be played in Cardiff, the Welsh will be gutted that they have to play at Twickenham, missing out on home court advantage – but that was known right as the schedule was drawn.
South Africa’s atrocious performance against Japan will remain in history, but the Springboks showed their class in the next pool matches, proving why they were the third favorites to win it all (for me, the first) before the tournament started. After losing the first match, South Africa bounced back with huge authority, demolishing Samoa by 40 points, Scotland by 23 and beating USA 64-0 – the only match with one team going scoreless in the RWC2015. Great defense, great overall performance, excellent display at the set piece play by the Springboks.
Wales proved again that they are one of the teams with the highest amount of character. Losing dominance in Europe over the last couple of years and entering the Rugby World Cup with a lot of key absentees, the Welsh grinded it out and qualified from the group of death. Despite continuing to lose key players due to injury in every match, Wales beat England and played a respectable match against a red hot Australia team, losing 15-6 – though Wales will be worried that they were not able to score a try (or a penalty) in an almost 10 minute stretch in which Australia had 2 men less on the pitch. Numerical advantage was not enough for Wales, who was 5 meters from the try line but did not have the finishing touch.
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Team news & lineups:
South Africa will make a single change to the team that killed USA, with Heyneke Meyer sticking to the changes that transformed SA after the Japan game. Wales will make three changes compared to the lineup that lost against Australia.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Fourie du Preez (c), 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Wales: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Wales is a side that can never be counted out, they proved that again and again, but you have to feel that this is it for them in the 2015 RWC. They simply miss too many players, if another couple of guys would have gone out, they would virtually have to field the “B team” today. Having played three epic, physical matches in the group stage (Fiji, England, Australia), it will be a tough task for the shorthanded Welsh to recover their fitness. You could see them gasping for air in the last 10-20 minutes against Australia. The fact that South Africa is such a physical, powerful side won`t help.
The Springboks are pumping on all cylinders lately and they are arguably the most experienced side int he World Cup, so I expect them to know exactly what to do against a weakened and tired Wales team. Look for South Africa to dominate the set pieces and to be better in the scrum, which should be more than enough to provide them with a relatively comfortable win – as they have a couple of key advantages, while not being weaker than Wales in any department. Wales also can`t count on a matchup / surprise factor as the two teams play a similar brand of rugby and it will mostly come down to quality, form and fitness. It`s no surprise that the first Wales win against South Africa came last year, after 11 consecutive Springboks victories since 2005 onwards.
The Brits will put on a fight, like always and might keep it very interesting for 60 minutes or so, but in the end I fully expect a 10+ points victory for the Springboks. They are simply the better team, in a much better physical state and will surely not take the game lightly after the shock suffered against Japan. My tip is South Africa to win and cover the 8 point handicap. Having seem them put 39 points by Scotland, they are surely able to put at least around 25 by Wales and it should be more than enough. Prediction: South Africa – Wales 23 – 11.
Pick: South Africa -8
Odds: 1.89 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.12
Event date: 17 October
I disagree with you in this one. I don’t see South Africa as a clear favourite to cover the handicap in this match. SA has had an average tournament , they were defeated by Japan in the opening match. After that they beat all their rivals but let’s be honest , they beat a Scottish team which was resting some players for the decider against Samoa. They beat Samoa and tbh they were the biggest disappointment after England (in my opinion) in this World Cup so far. Then they beat a USA B team and this might be curious because at half time they were struggling to enter the American defense. On the other hand , Wales have faced decent opposition in this World Cup , they made it through the next round in the hardest group. also this knock out matches tend to be close, especially between tier 1 nations. I wouldn’t be surprise if just a few points are scored. And I think what is important in this matches is to defend very well rather than attacking. I think the points will be scored mainly from penalties, that’s why I think the handicap is a bit high as i would set it in 6-6,5. However good chance on this one because i think SA have a better chance than Wales to beat NZ on a eventual semifinal. (I have Ireland , Australia and France to be champions so if NZ is knocked out that’s a super bonus to me.
Nice input mate and I agree with many of the points that you made. I also know the general consensus is that Wales will cover the spread, but I don`t think that will happen.
I think South Africa has been solid after the Japan game, really looked good. Three convincing wins, Scotland and Samoa are no mugs.
Don`t you believe that Wales is really likely to fold physically in the last 20 minutes or so? If that`s the case, the handicap would be as good as covered. I can see a low scoring game based on penalties, just like you said, with South Africa leading by 3-8 points going into the last 20 minutes – when I fully expect them to add another 5-10 points to the difference.
How many more heroics can Wales pull off with so many injuries? Playing well in the group of death was remarkable, but also surely took its toll physically.
I think Australia is your only shot on that bet, but a really solid one. I`d say they are arguably favorites right now. Cheers!
You were right, congratulations. Massive defense by Wales, all credit to this brilliant team.
I feel the handicap was played in the first 20 minutes of the second half, when SA could not capitalize on the pressure and Pollard missed a couple of penalties. In the last 10 minutes my prediction about SA being superior physically seemed to come true, but they needed to be ahead by that point. 10 points were too many to score in such a short amount of time. I`m disappointed, but Wales deserves credit, they could have even won. Expecting better in the New Zealand match, which was my bet of the day.
Yes, it was a tight game. I bet on Wales +8 so I could made some money. Iit was a nice game, SA start controlling the game and they could capitalize as they were 9-3. (And Wales was giving away some silly penalties) However, the try Wales scored gave them a boost and they started to play well.
You were right too, in the last minutes it was clear that SA was superior physically than wales. Still I dont know why the coach took off Biggar when there was missing just 7 minutes. He was playing an outstanding match!! Talking about the handicap, Pollard missed some chances that could’ve been 5-6 more points to SA. Now I hope the Boks improve so the can have a chance because playing like today they won’t have too many against the All Blacks…
Yep, that`s pretty much how it went. Congrats on the winning bet mate! I do believe SA can beat NZ. All Blacks would obviously be favorites, but South Africa has what it takes to push them all the way, remember some fantastic clashes in Rugby Championship recently. I still believe Springboks can win this RWC, which was my prediction at the start. They just need to play to their strengths.
Warren Gatland:
” Dan Biggar was a medical call. They took him off the field for a HIA.
He looked like he had a bit of a knock and we support our medical team 100 per cent.
He’s done a fantastic job for us in terms of his leadership and control.
It’s nice to see him contributing and becoming one of the best fly-halves in the tournament.”
HIA means health impact assessment I think. Don`t think there`s anything Biggar could have done in those last 7 minutes though.