New Zealand – France

New Zealand and France will resume one of the biggest rivalry between hemispheres, as the All Blacks take on “Les Bleus” at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff in the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals. New Zealand will surely remember the last two times they met France in the Rugby World Cup – an 18-20 shocking loss back in 2007 and a much harder than expected 8-7 victory on home soil in the 2011 RWC final. However, the All Blacks dominated France with authority since then.

New Zealand has not impressed so far in the World Cup. Despite winning their group rather comfortably, the All Blacks were not at their best – being challenged big time by Argentina and failing to show their world class potential in the matches against Namibia, Georgia and Tonga – with the first two sides losing much closer than expected and covering the handicap by miles. However, New Zealand worked hard on their game and cohesion in the pool stage, trying to get in the best shape for the latter stages – the team is famous for its ability to peak just at the right time, so it`s safe to expect increased intensity and a better showing against France.

Les Bleus have been pretty much as expected so far, which is a surprise considering the colossal inconsistency of this side. The French, however, did show this inconsistency by alternating moments of brilliant rugby with shocking mistakes throughout all pool stage matches – though the moments of brilliance are getting fewer and fewer. Their best game was arguably the first one against Italy, 32-10. They were lucky to beat Romania by 27 points, conceded 2 tries against Canada (41-18) and finally lost against Ireland in the final of the group, without scoring a try (9-24). There are many people saying that this is one of the worst French teams ever and it`s hard to argue with that looking at the fact that they did not finish higher than 4th in the Six Nations in the last 4 years.

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Team news & lineups:

France has made three changes to its most recent lineup, while New Zealand will change four.

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Alexandre Dumoulin, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Brice Dulin, 10 Frédéric Michalak, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Bernard le Roux, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (c), 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Papé, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Eddy Ben Arous

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

New Zealand struggled against the French in recent Rugby World Cups, but since that dramatic 8-7 win in 20011, the All Blacks were all over France – winning 4 out of 4 test matches by an average difference of 15,5 points.

The word is that you can never count out France and that might be true, but Les Bleus are not even remotely close to the level they had when they pulled off some unexpected performances in the World Cup, particularly the ones against New Zealand. France was largely unimpressive so far, their defense was dreadful at times and this will be something New Zealand will look to exploit. Even their offense was badly exposed against the first Tier 1 opponent, Ireland. The All Blacks have not played fantastic rugby either, but they have been clearly looking to build their game and avoid injuries. When they needed it, like in the second half against Argentina, they immediately raised their level.

The Southern Hemisphere seems to be as dominant as ever in Rugby right now. Australia beat England by 20, with England being a class over France. New Zealand beat a red hot Argentina team by 10, with New Zealand playing its worst match of the tournament and the Pumas being way better than France at this moment. While no match is similar to the other and while underdogs covered the spread in 70% matches of this tournament so far, it`s really hard to look past a convincing New Zealand win here.

My tip is New Zealand to cover the 12,5 handicap. An important argument for this bet is that Nigel Owens will be the referee. I rate him as the best in the game but, more importantly, he favors a wide, open style of rugby, with less interruptions, which clearly favors New Zealand. France might not get as many dead moments and penalties as they would like. Simply everything is on New Zealan’s side here, so I`m confidently taking this bet with high stakes. Prediction: New Zealand – France 31 – 13.

Pick: New Zealand -12,5
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.73
Event date: 17 October