Australia – Scotland

Australia and Scotland will square off at Twickenham in what is, on paper, the most unbalanced Rugby World Cup quarterfinals. The red hot Australians are 1.10 favorites according to bookmakers and the handicap line is set at 15 points.

The Wallabies have been the most praised team in the RWC 2015 and for good reason. Australia finished the group of death on top, beating both England (33-13) and Wales (15-6) and showing brilliant rugby overall – particularly in the late stages against England and in that almost 10 minute strech against Wales, in which they defended perfectly with 2 men less on the pitch. The Wallabies have been the most complete team in this tournament and, for all their offensive talent, their number 1 strength lied in defense, as showed in the Wales match. Australia allowed only 35 points in the RWC, tied for least with Ireland, despite being in a horror group.

Scotland grabbed the second place in Pool B due to points difference, finishing with 3 wins – tied with South Africa and Japan. Some may argue that Scotland is lucky to have played Japan right after the Asians won against South Africa – which fatigued the Asians both physically and mentally. Scotland was also very close to losing against Samoa in the last match. All these may be true, but Scotland deserves credit. They have improved in the last year under Vern Cotter, despite finishing last in the Six Nations this season (they challenged the top sides and were very unlucky). Scotland’s wing play was very good, particularly on offense, but they can suffer defensively and in the scrum.

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Team news & lineups:

Australia will get back Cooper, but will rest Pocock and Folau (who also nurses an injury), two of their best players. Scotland got a big boost after Ford and Gray won appeals over suspension and will be in the lineup.

Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c) 1 Scott Sio

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Peter Horne, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 Dave Denton, 7 John Hardie, 6 Blair Cowan, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Tim Swinson, 3 WP Nel, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson.

Listen, Australia will win, but the handicap line is very high at 15 points and this might not be a blowout. The Wallabies miss some players and they just want to get the job done, staying healthy for the semifinals. For all the praise Australia got, they have not been THAT good offensively. They only broke down England in the last 20 minutes, they did not score a try against Wales and put ‘only’ 28 points by Fiji. Their defense on the other hand has been by far the best in the RWC and honestly Scotland should be very satisfied if they manage to score a try against this insanely good Wallabies barrage.

What’s more, the absences of Pocock and Folau will badly hurt Australia’s offensive game. Folau’s speed and versatility on the wings is irreplaceable and Pocock, a master at the break down, has arguably been the best player in the RWC so far. Both guys brought massive contributions to Australia’s attacking game, they are impact players who change the game, so it`s safe to expect the Wallabies to be a bit more rusty and slow without them. With kicker Foley in the form of his life, Australia might also choose to convert penalties rather than force line-outs, just like they did against Wales.

Look for Australia to deny Scotland opportunities and the Brits might well fail to score a try. The Wallabies on the other hand will very likely not be at their best offensively and against a resilient Scottish side, they will be more than happy to simply keep the game out of their reach in the latter stages. The last three meetings between the two teams were 9-8 for Scotland (2006), 9-8 for Scotland (2012) and 21-15 for Australia (2013) – all well below today`s under / over line. With the pressure of a quarterfinal to take into account, my tip is under 41,5 points to be scored. Prediction: Australia – Scotland 23 – 9.

Pick: under 41,5 points
Odds: 1.99 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.92
Event date: 18 October