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Azeri side Qabala will aim to record a historic result as they meet Borussia Dortmund in one of the club’s biggest ever matches. The hosts are last in the Europa League Group C with 1 point, while Dortmund is first with 4 points. PAOK and Krasnodar are the two other teams involved. The match will be played in Baku, as Qabala’s stadium does not meet European norms.
Qabala started off with a decent 0-0 draw at home against PAOK Salonic and followed that with an even better display in Russia, losing 2-1 against Krasnodar. It was a great performance, as Qabala had plenty of chances and was only denied by a late goal. These two matches are the only ones from the last 6 in which Qabala did not win. The hosts are in great form – not only did they win 4 of the last 6 matches in all competitions, but they kept 5 clean sheets in the process.
Borussia Dortmund would like to pretty much wrap up qualification in this game, as they really need to focus more on the Bundesliga, where they are not in a great situation. Borussia’s 2-0 win over Mainz in the weekend was the first one for the Germans in the last 6 matches in all competitions. In Europa League, they beat Krasnodar 2-1 in the last minute of the game and settled for a 1-1 draw in Salonic after trailing 1-0.
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Team news: The big news is that Mkhitaryan will not travel to Baky because of the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Dortmund did not break a sweat in leaving him at home, which says that they don`t really view this as a do or die game – even if the visitors are expected to field more or less the best lineup.
The quality difference is obviously massive here, but Gabala is in with a very good chance to at least limit the scoreline, if not get a draw. Dortmund is not in good form, they were far from impressive in Europa League so far and it`s not quite sure how motivated they will be for this match – they are thinking more about climbing the Bundesliga table. Additionally, a visit in Azerbaijan is never easy to a Western European side. For Qabala this is a huge match, for many players it will be the match of their lives. The hosts will give absolutely everything and I reckon their excellent defense will be enough to frustrate a less motivated Dortmund team.
Qabala has been brilliant at home in Europea this season, despite three of the matches being played in Baku. They won 3 and drew 2, did not allow a single goal and held Greek sides Paok and Panathinaikos to 0-0 draws. As for Dortmund, they did not win by more than 1 goal in any of their three road matches in Europa League this year, despite meeting similar or worse opposition than Gabala (Wolfsberger, Odd, PAOK).
My tip is Qabala to stay competitive in this encounter and cover a +1,75 asian handicap. An upset is not impossible at all, but the +1,75 asian line gives extra security at great odds. Prediction: Qabala – Borussia Dortmund 0-0.
Pick: Gabala (+1,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.21 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.89
Event date: 22 October
