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South Africa and Argentina will both be disappointed of missing the Grand final, but a Bronze medal is still a massive incentive as the two teams will square off at the Olympic Stadium in London. Unfortunately for the Pumas, they will have to deal with massive squad problems coming into this game.
South Africa got a lot of stick from people in this tournament, especially after their horrible loss against Japan in the opener – but the Springboks have played very well in the World Cup and were not far away to defeat New Zealand in the semifinals, losing by just two points after holding a healthy advantage after the first half. South Africa did not score any tries in the semifinal, but their kicking game and the defense were both at a very high level. They are arguably the second most talented team in the competition after the All Blacks and will want to leave England with their heads held high and with a medal. The fact that they lost to New Zealand will probably soften the blow, so I don`t expect South Africa to be low on morale.
What a tournament for Argentina so far, brilliant performance in the group stage, managing to even challenge the All Blacks (lost by 10, late in the game). The Pumas went on to win 43-20 against Ireland in the quarters, but despite the emphatic win, there were signs of weakness there for those who had eyes to see them. Ireland was ravaged by injuries to 4 of their key and best players, but was still the better team for about 45-50 minutes and gave Argentina much more of a fight than the score suggests. A strong Australian team capitalized on these issues of Argentina (most notably turnover ratio at the breakdown), winning 29-15 in the semifinals – in pretty dominant fashion overall – though Argentina could have tied the game at one point in the second half, they did not score any tries, conceding 3. Now, the Pumas will be decimated ahead of the Bronze final.
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Team news & lineups:
Scrum half captain Fourie du Preez will miss for South Africa and he will be one of the two changes that Heyneke Mayer will make in the lineup. Du Preez is a big absentee for the Boks, but Argentina has been cursed by a series of key injuries that will force coach Hourcade to make NINE changes to the side that lost against Australia. Imhoff, Crevey and Hernandes are irreplaceable for the Pumas. Bosch and Tuculet are other key players missing from the lineup.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Argentina: 15 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo De La Fuente, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Nicolás Sánchez (c), 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 7 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Javier Ortega Desio, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Julian Montoya, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
South Africa won 6 of the 7 Head 2 Head meetings from 2013 onwards, including the last one, in August – 26-12 in Buenos Aires. Argentina defeated the Boks in a famous win in this year’s Rugby World Championship, but South Africa was not its true self in that shortened tournament, seemingly preferring to experiment game plans for the World Cup.
Even in normal circumstances, South Africa should have too much for the brave Argentina and win this by 5-10 points. But today, I see no way for Argentina to stay competitive against this Springboks side, not with these injuries. Absolutely key players missing, most of their best guys, including captain Creevy – who is the key to their dominant scrum.
Argentina might find themselves in the rare situation of being outplayed in the scrum and if that happens, their entire game plan will collapse. Look for South Africa to dominate the kicking games and they should be better on the wings as well, particularly with Argentina missing 5 wide players. The most important advantage though should be at the breakdown – where Argentina suffers and has been murdered by Australia in the semifinals, while the Boks are very strong. I have a feeling that Bryan Habana, taking advantage of the circumstances, will score a try and break Jonah Lomu’s all time record for number of tries scored in Rugby World Cups.
The injuries in the Argentina camp are such a huge blow. It`s by far the backbone and the most important factor in my analysis. They just can`t be the same team without so many important guys. We saw in this World Cup, not that we needed any proof, that even 1 or 2 key injuries can change the face of a team. Argentina benefited from this against Ireland. Now they will miss 3-4 crucial men in crucial positions, alongside a couple of other important guys. Even New Zealand would be badly hurt in these circumstances, let alone Argentina and particularly after such a difficult, tiring tournament.
We can also suspect that, despite nine changes to the lineup, Argentina will feel fatigue – they are famous for collapsing physically late in matches against top teams and after such an exhausting tournament, they might again crumble in the final 20 minutes or so. All in all, a strong South Africa side should have way too much for the depleted Argentinians, who will give it their all but will still lose by 12-20 points.
Australia won by 14 against the first choice Pumas team and South Africa is at least on par, if not better than Australia. They should cruise here. My tip is South Africa to win and cover the 8,5 handicap. Prediction: South Africa – Argentina 34 – 16.
Pick: South Africa -8,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Bwin
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 30 October
Going same as you , just instead of -8.5 @2.00, I’m backing the -7.5 @1.90. All the week I was thinking about backing Argentina. As they were @3.75 and the handicap +7.5 @1.85-1.90. But after watching the lineups I have completely changed my mind. Creevy, Bosch, tuculet and specially imhoff are out. Landajo is starting as a substitute as well. so Argentina team is not their best. On the other hand SA is starting with a really strong XV. I think the gap of quality and experience between these two teams will make the difference. I’m also thinking about betting on habana to score a try@2:15 , seems more probable than what the odds suggest. Probably last match in a WC, 1 try away from becoming the new try scorer leader, bronze final , I think the bet might have a chance. Curiously the last 3 (i think) bronze finals have been won by the team that rested just 5 days but I think/hope that won’t be the case tomorrow !!
Same here, I believed Argentina has a chance to keep it close and was thinking maybe, just maybe I will bet on the Pumas – but with all these injuries there`s no way. -7,5 @ 1.90 is good but I wanted even more value, I don`t think the result will be close to the handicap line (thus the 10 unit stake).
I like Habana to score a try, Argentina will be weakened on the wings, but I`m not sure 2.15 is good enough. I have enough invested on the handicap so I won`t bet, but good luck if you choose to do so. It will be interesting to see if he scores, as we both expect.