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Crucial encounter in the Europa League group E, where Molde are the surprising leaders with 7 points – 3 in front of Fenerbahce, 5 in front of Ajax and Celtic, teams that were rated as clear favorites in front of the Norwegians.
Ajax played a good game in Turkey two rounds ago, not allowing Fenerbahce to dominate possession. It was a cautious performance form Ajax, who was clearly looking for a draw, but a 90th minute goal by Fener meant that Ajax eventually lost 1-0. The hosts are on the back of a 6-0 win against Roda, after previously losing 1-0 to Feyenoord in an Eredivisie derby clash – their first league defeat of the season.
Fenerbahce is finally starting to click a little bit after starting the season with poor results, especially in Europe. Fener’s rejuvenation is clearly due to the improved defense, as the visitors understood they can`t leak so many goals, as the offense is not putting up great stats, despite the talent. Fenerbahce has three 1-0 wins in the last four matches in all competitions, with the other result being a 1-1 draw against Galatasaray.
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Team news & lineups:
Sanogo and Boer are out for Ajax, with Dijks and Bazoer doubtful. Bazoer should be in the starting lineup though. Fenerbahce misses Sen, Kadlec and Markovic, while Erkin and Ba are highly questionable.
Ajax: Cillessen – Tete, Dijks, Veltman, Riedewald – Bazoer, Gudelj, Klaassen – El Ghazi, Fischer, Milik
Fenerbahce: Demeril – Gonul, Kaldirim, Kjaer, Bruno Alves – Souza, Topal, Potuk – Nani, Diego – Van Persie
Ajax might not be satisfied with a draw here, but clearly the priority is not to lose – if they do so, qualification could very well become not only virtually compromised, but mathematically as well. The balanced approach in Istanbul worked well for Ajax, despite the loss, so expect the home side to play another cautious match, trying to hold possession in midfield and not allow open spaces to the visitors.
Fenerbahce on the other hand will surely look to continue with the same recent defensive stats, especially as a draw would suit them well in Amsterdam. The visitors will likely concede possession, but will try to make sure they keep Ajax 25-30 meters away from goal. I can see both teams being passive here, very similar to what happened in the first leg, with a slow match being played between Ajax’s 40 meter line and Fenerbahce’s 30 meter line.
The odds on the under / over market are pretty decent, so my tip on this one is under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Ajax Amsterdam – Fenerbahce 0-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.84 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.88
Event date: 5 November
