Murray – Nadal

After both players claimed straight sets wins in their opening matches in Group Ilie Nastase of the ATP World tour finals, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are each seeking a victory that will most likely get them qualification to the semifinals.

Murray came into this tournament with some questionmarks over his head, as the Brit made it clear that his main objective is winning the Davis Cup for Great Britain and as a result he trained on clay last week. Despite this, Andy played very well in his opening match against David Ferrer. The 6-4 6-3 result was a bit harsh, as the match was rather evenly matched, but Ferrer really played well. Andy`s win came to confirm his recent good form (reached final in Paris last week) and it seems like he`s ready here in London despite focusing more on Davis Cup over the past two weeks.

Nadal has been surprisingly solid in the indoor season. This has always been his worst surface, but this year it has been the one that rejuvenated him. Rafa entered the World Tour finals in fine form, playing better and better each week and he put on another great display against Wawrinka – one of his best of the season. Even though Wawrinka was not in “Stanimal” mode, Nadal played very good tennis, winning 6-4 6-2 and avenging his double-tiebreak loss to Wawrinka in Paris.

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Nadal leads the Head 2 Head 16-5, also holding a 6-5 advantage on hard courts and a 2-1 advantage on indoor hard. Rafa actually leads on all possible surfaces, he`s even 3-0 on grass. He was able to take Murray out of his comfort zone over his years and it`s pretty obvious that, at his best, Rafa has a slight matchup advantage over the Brit. It`s questionable if that is still the case, as right now the Spaniard might not play his absolute best tennis (even though he seems to be going in that direction).

Rafa is really looking good right now, his forehand is getting close to what it used to be, his movement is ok and the attitude is great. With this in mind, I expect Nadal to put on a massive fight here, even though the in-form Murray remains the favorite. His clay court training might not have mattered against Ferrer, but it might do him a disservice against Nadal, who played a ton of indoor hard court matches recently and who does hold at least a psychological advantage over Andy.

Can`t see any of these two guys losing without a fight here and there`s a great chance to see 3 sets – after all, in this format each set is crucial and no player will want to go down 0-2. But the under / over line, which is reasonable at about 23 games, can also be covered in two sets. My tip on this one is over 22,5 games to be played. Prediction: Andy Murray – Rafael Nadal 7-6 4-6 6-4.

Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 17 November