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League two relegation side Hartlepool will play host to Championship outfit Derby County in a FA Cup third round clash, with Derby set as 1.50 odds favorites by the bookies.
Hartlepool is currently sitting on the 21st place in League Two, dropping close to the relegation zone after losing all of the last 4 matches. However, relegation is not exactly a threat, with Hartlepool having 3 or 4 matches in hand compared to most other League Two sides. Offense has been the number 1 problem for the home side this season, as they are scoring less than 1 goal per game, boosting the worst attack in League Two.
After a couple of years of failed attempts, Derby County seems likely to finally gain promotion to the Premier League this season. With an excellent roster, Derby is second in the Championship, despite losing a crucial match in the last round against first placed Middlesbrough, 0-2 on the road. Derby will look to bounce back with a win today in Hartlepool and they will surely fancy their chances to do exactly that.
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Team news: Magnay, Worley, Paynter and Duckworth are unavailable for Hartlepool. Derby won’t be able to count on Thorne, but will have three new players available, including Buxton, who returns after a long absence due to injury. Derby will also likely rest a few regulars today.
The difference between the two clubs is even bigger than the two division gap might suggest, as Hartlepool is barely League Two quality, while Derby County right now is Premier League material. This factor, combined with Hartlepool’s horrible form, makes this one of the matches in which an upset does not seem likely, even if the FA Cup is an upset prone competition (especially at this stage). Upsets are usually springed by lower level teams that are in very good form, against relegation strugglers in superior divisions – that is not the case here.
Even if Derby County will likely rest 4-5 players, they have more than enough quality to see of Hartlepool comfortably. Manager Paul Clemens stated that his team is focused, not taking the opponent lightly, so that is obviously good news to hear. My tip here is Derby County to win and cover a 1 goal asian handicap. The hosts are very poor on the offensive end, while Derby should be able to bang in a couple of goals. I reckon that, at the very least, we will get our investment back. Prediction: Hartlepool – Derby County 0-2.
Pick: Derby (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.81 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 9 January
