Ferrer – Hewitt

David Ferrer will aim to be the one that ends Lleyton Hewitt’s illustrious career in the Australian Open second round, while the gritty Australian will try to put on one last magical performance on Rod Laver Arena before he retires.

Ferrer did not play particularly well this year, losing to Marchenko in the Doha first round and to Sock in the Auckland semifinals. He pun on a decent performance in the Australian Open first round, beating Gojowczyk 6-4 6-4 6-2, even though David was not at his best, making 26 unforced errors. Overall, the Spaniard has been shaky so far in 2016, but he has not been too bad and is sure to increase his level as the rounds go by here in Melbourne.

Hewit was a favorite in his first round clash against Duckworth, but the Australian played better than expected, cruising to a 7-6 6-2 6-4 win. He looked healthy and sharp, serving pretty well (broken just two times). An improvement compared to some of the matches he played last year, in which he looked tired and spent and Hewitt saw that, stating that he is feeling very well, hitting the ball well and that he gives himself a fighting chance in the second round. Surely the motivation is huge for the Aussie legend in his last tournament, but playing against Ferrer will be a totally different task.

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The Head 2 Head is 2-1 for David Ferrer, but the two players have not met since the 2012 US Open, when David won 7-6 4-6 6-3 6-0. The matchup is an important factor in this match, with Ferrer seemingly having an immense advantage. He’s a similar player to Hewitt, covering the baseline, moving very well and putting balls in play. The difference is that Ferrer does everything better at this stage of their careers.

I can see Hewitt fighting like crazy and sticking around for two sets or so (just like in their last meeting), but in the end he just does not have the stamina to cope with a baseliner like Ferrer anymore. It will be difficult for Lleyton to beat Ferrer at his own game and he will often struggle to find answers, as he doesn`t have the type of game to simply blast winners past David. I can see Hewitt attacking the net more in search of solutions, but Ferrer will surely be there to pass him. Hewitt’s serve is also a liability at this stage of his career and, unlike Duckworth, Ferrer will certainly be all over it.

Look for about 2 sets of classy tennis, Hewitt might even snatch one, but in the end he will get tired, as he did so many times this year in the final 1 or 2 sets. Against a guy like Ferrer, the chances for Hewitt to collapse are even higher. David will force him to run around in long, grueling rallies and after so many years and injuries, Lleyton can’t win a matchup like this anymore, especially when we’re talking about a 3 out of 5 sets format.

Unfortunately, it looks like Rusty will play his last career match Thursday morning (EU time) and tennis will say goodbye to the great Aussie legend. As such, my tip on this clash is David Ferrer to cover the 6,5 game handicap. Prediction: David Ferrer – Lleyton Hewitt 6-4 6-7 6-0 6-2.

Pick: Ferrer -6,5
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.16
Event date: 21 January