Tsonga – Nishikori

Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Kei Nishikori will open the 7th day of the Australian Open with a mouthwatering 4th round matchup.

Tsonga defeated Baghdatis, Jasika and Herbert in order to reach this stage, losing one set to Baghdatis and also having a really tough match against Herbert. It was a 6-4 7-6 7-6 victory, with Jo Wilfried fending off set points, getting broken twice, but producing the goods when it mattered most. The Frenchman said that he’s feeling really well about his body and pretty well about his tennis. Earlier this year he reached the Auckland semifinals, knocked out by Roberto Bautista-Agut in three sets.

Nishikori needed 4 sets to defeat Garcia Lopez in the 3rd round, after previously winning in straight over Kohlschreiber and Krajicek. The Japanese did not play a bad match against Garcia Lopez, but he had some problems with his wrist in the first two sets, which eventually disappeared later in the match. Kei stated that he’s feeling fine and he is not worried about the wrist. Before the Australian Open, Nishikori lost in the Brisbane quarterfinals at Tomic, 1-2.

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Tsonga won the last meeting at Roland Garros last year, a strange match, as Nishikori was rubbish in the first two sets, clawed his way back to 2 sets all, but Tsonga played his best set of the match to claim victory in 5. However, Nishikori still leads the Head 2 Head 4-2 (4-1 on hard) and he has a matchup advantage over Tsonga due to his speed, his defensive abilities and his playing style from the baseline.

You have to feel that Tsonga is playing at least at the same level as Nishikori right now and with Kei having those small wrist problems, the Frenchman might have the first chance. However, Nishikori likes to play Jo, owns the Head 2 Head advantage and the matchup is favorable to him – always a huge factor.

I believe betting the on the under / over game line is the best way to go here. Only one of the 6 meetings ended in straight sets and that was because Nishikori got injured after losing a 1st set tiebreak. Four sets should be the minimum here and with a tiebreak likely to happen, 4 sets should be enough to go over this line – but this could also turn into a 5 set thriller.

My tip here is over 41 games to be played and I will invest reasonable stakes on this bet. Prediction: Jo Wilfried Tsonga – Key Nishikori 4-6 7-6 2-6 7-5 8-6.

Pick: over 41 games
Odds: 1.89 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.23
Event date: 24 January