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Roberto Bautista-Agut and Tomas Berdych will take the court Sunday morning, European time, in an interesting 4th round match at the Australian Open.
Bautista Agut has been one of the most in-form players on tour so far this season. After a quarterfinal exist at Chennai, the Spaniard won the Auckland title with wins over Tsonga and Isner, plus a victory over Sock in the final, but the American was injured and had to retire. Bautista-Agut did not seem to be at the same level in the first two rounds here in Melbourne, needing 5 sets against Both Klizan and Lajovic. He defeated Cilic 3-0 in the third round, his best performance, but Marin was not at his best.
Tomas Berdych made light work of Bhambri and Basic in the first two rounds before posting an impressive 3-1 win over an in form Kyrgios. He reached the Doha semifinals earlier this year (lost to Djokovic). Tomas is looking really solid right now, playing aggressive and serving well – always good indicators of his level and confidence. He seems on the same track with the start he had in 2015, when he won 33 (!!) consecutive matches against players ranked outside the Top 10 to start the year.
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Berdych leads the H2H 3-2, winning two straight meetings and the only one that took place last year, a 7-6 6-4 victory in Monte Carlo. However, Roberto Bautista Agut holds a 2-1 H2H advantage on hard courts.
The Spaniard has surely been in impressive form this season, showing good tennis in Australia as well, despite his early struggles. However, playing in the 4th round of a major against a guy like Berdych will be a different challenge. Bautista-Agut is well known to struggle against top players, as his absolutely horrible 4-23 record against Top 10 players suggests – hard to find another man that’s been for a long time in a Top 20 spot having such a pathetic record against Top 10 guys. The Spaniard is also usually powerless against big hitters in good form, so all these factors added together make him less dangerous than his form would suggest.
I expect Berdych to bring his “A game” and take care of Bautista-Agut in no more than 4 sets. The handicap and under/over lines seem a bit tricky, as Bautista could snatch a set, so I will settle for lower odds, but a safer and simple bet.
As such, my tip on this encounter is Tomas Berdych to win and cover the 1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Roberto Bautista-Agut – Tomas Berdych 3-6 6-4 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Berdych -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.53 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.24
Event date: 24 January
