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Arsenal takes on Chelsea in the Premier League match of the weekend and a London derby, with the Gunners aiming to reclaim the first spot in the standings.
Wenger would have been very satisfied with 4 points in the last two matches, difficult travels to Liverpool and Stoke, but a last minute goal by Joe Allen at Anfield forced the Gunners to settle for just two points. Still, it was not bad to stay undefeated in those 2 games and Arsenal will come in with confidence today. The hosts are 3 points behind Leicester after the Foxes won on Saturday, so Arsenal needs a victory in order to retain the first place. Fortunately for Wenger’s side, they are in great form at home, winning 6 consecutive matches (and 9 of the last 10) in all competitions.
Chelsea is not doing much better following Mourinho’s departure. Hiddink is the kind of manager that has an immediate impact on his teams, but the Dutch manager failed to impress so far. The bright side for Chelsea is that they haven’t lost in the previous 7 matches, but they won just 3 times despite a rather easy schedule. The Blues are on the back of two high scoring draws against West Brom (2-2) and Everton (3-3).
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Team news & lineups:
Arsenal is getting players back from injury, Alexis Sanchez being the most important one and he could feature from the start. Coquelin, Cazorla, Welbeck, Wilshere and Rosicky remain sidelined. Chelsea has problems up front, with Falcao unavailable, while Costa and Hazard are not 100% fit.
Arsenal: Cech – Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal – Flamini, Ramsey – Walcott, Ozil, Sanchez (Campbell) – Giroud
Chelsea: Courtois – Ivanovic, Terry, Zouma, Azpilicueta – Mikel, Matic – Willian, Fabregas, Pedro (Hazard) – Costa
This is a very important match for Arsenal, so I am sure Wenger will approach it in a very cautious manner. He always played it safe against the Blues and this can also be seen looking at the stats: the previous 4 meetings saw under 2.5 goals, as did 6 of the last 7. Further more, in all these last 7 meetings at least one team failed to score.
While it’s true that Hiddink has a contrasting style to Mourinho and Chelsea is a different side, much more offensive now, I believe Arsenal will be able to control the tempo at home. They should impose their own rhythm – which, in all likelihood, will be cautious and patient. Also, Hiddink will surely focus more on defense after his side allowed 5 goals in the last 2 matches. Surely Chelsea put a lot of effort in training this week in order to improve defensively. It’s also worth mentioning that in the previous game against a top side, Chelsea held Man United to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford, choosing a more defensive style than usual. Finally, Chelsea’s offense won’t be helped by the fitness problems of Hazard and Costa, while the expected lineup with Mikel besides Matic suggests more prudent intentions from Hiddink.
I don’t expect fireworks here, it’s an absolutely massive game for Arsenal and they will not risk much, while Chelsea will probably accept whatever style of play Arsenal proposes. While the Gunners are viewed as an offensive team, the reality is that they have a goal difference of just 16-6 in 10 Premier League home matches this season. They like to stay safe at the back and patiently apply pressure up front, looking for that perfect chance. With so much at stake today, I doubt they will try anything different.
I reckon that odds of 2.15 for both teams not to score are crazy if we consider the fact that in all previous 7 meetings at least one team failed to find the net. The odds are much better for this bet than for the under 2.5, so my tip is both teams to score – no. Fantastic value, no doubt, so I will invest 9 units even if my confidence in the winning outcome of the bet would be about 8 units. Prediction: Arsenal – Chelsea 2-0.
Pick: Both to score – No
Odds: 2.15 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.35
Event date: 24 January
