Djokovic – Nishikori

Novak Djokovic will play against Kei Nishikori in the Australian Open quarterfinals, with some people giving Kei a shot at an upset, even if Nole remains the heavy favorite.

Djokovic suffered a real scare in the previous round, needing 5 sets to defeat Gilles Simon even if the Djoker was 1-0 and 2-1 up. It was the first time in a long time when Nole looked vulnerable, after dominating the end of last year, winning Doha convincingly at the start of this year and playing great in the first three rounds of the Australian Open. He made no less than 100 (!!!) unforced errors, but obviously it was just one match and he`s expected to be back to his best for this quarterfinal – just as he was in the final set against Gilles.

Kei Nishikori’s three set demolition of Tsonga cemented the feeling that Kei is in his best form right now. He had some minor wrist problems in the third round, when he lost his only set of the tournament against Garcia-Lopez, but the wrist was not a problem in the 4th round – as he said it wouldn’t. Kei played great, put pressure on Jo’s serve and he was in control of the match from the first point to the last.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 5-2 (3-2 on hard), but Nishikori has weapons to trouble him. Kei most famously defeated Nole in the 2014 US Open semifinals, so he CAN mix it up with the Djoker on his day. However, Nole won the last meeting 6-1 6-1 at the 2015 World Tour Finals.

I can see a gripping encounter here and if Nole shows the same weaknesses he showed against Simon, Kei might even have a chance to win. I don’t think that will happen, but Nishikori will have his chances if he repeats (or improves) on the performances he put on in this tournament. Nishikori’s movement will be the key here and so far he moved fantastic, super fast and very effective. When at his best, he has the style, quality, experience, belief and matchup to challenge Djokovic.

Listen, I`m under no illusions that Novak Djokovic’s struggles against Simon will have any impact here. No, the Djoker is in top form and that scare will drive him to do even better today – surely he won`t hit 100 unforced errors again. But Nishikori is playing at such a high level, he can keep it close even against the best version of Nole.

For my bet it would have been better if Djokovic won easily against Simon, because the handicap line would probably be higher today. But 7 games is still very reasonable, so my tip is Nishikori to cover that 7 games handicap (a braver punter could also play a set handicap on Kei). At his best, the Japanese Number 1 should go toe to toe with Nole, possibly even snatching 1 or 2 sets. Odds are dropping on this bet. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Kei Nishikori 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Nishikori +7
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 26 January