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David Ferrer and Andy Murray square off in the Australian Open quarterfinals, with the Brit priced as a 1.20 – 1.25 odds favorite by the bookies, while punters are betting slightly more on Ferrer right now.
The Spaniard has been in brilliant form over these past 10 days, winning all his matches in straight sets and showcasing some excellent tennis in the process. David did not even play a tiebreak and had only one set going over 6-4 in the whole tournament, despite playing against the big serving John Isner in the 4th round – against whom he comfortably won 6-4 6-4 7-5. It’s safe to say Ferrer is playing his best tennis right now, moving extremely well, not making errors and going (successfully) for his shots.
Andy Murray seemed a bit shaky at times in this Australian Open, particularly in his 3rd round match against Sousa, where he lost a set and was outplayed for some stretches of the match, but also in the 4th round against Tomic. Andy did well to win in 3 sets over an in form player, but the match could have (should have?) easily gone to 4 sets. Overall good tennis from Murray, but he’s not at his absolute best and needs an extra step if he is to challenge for the title here in Melbourne.
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The 12-6 Head 2 Head advantage for Murray (10-2 on hard) is not very one sided considering the quality difference and suggests that Ferrer has the style to challenge the Brit. Not so much on hard courts, though. Murray won the last 5 meetings and the last 2 were pretty convincing late last year: 6-4 6-3 at the Paris Masters and 6-4 6-4 at the World Tour finals. However, Ferrer was not playing at the level he is now.
I have been impressed with Ferrer in this tournament, particularly as it was doubtful that at his age he can ever find his best level again, particularly on such a big stage. However, he is doing it, playing some fantastic tennis.
Surely it will be a big challenge to keep it up consistently against Murray, who will force him to hit the extra shot, but David can cope with that if he continues to take risks, painting the lines with smart aggressive plays. When he does that, as he did these past 10 days, it’s an important indicative of his confidence. Ferrer’s excellent returns (which nullified the Isner serve in the 4th round) will also be a massive advantage against the weak Murray second serve, which David will punish.
I do not believe that a David Ferrer at his best, fit and motivated, can get blown out by Andy Murray – particularly as Andy is not quite in the form of his life, despite playing very well. Expect some solid rally – based tennis here and Ferrer’s form should allow him to claim at least one set, covering the generous game handicap in the process. My tip is Ferrer +6 games and the odds are dropping on this bet. Prediction: David Ferrer – Andy Murray 6-4 6-7 4-6 3-6.
Pick: Ferrer +6 game handicap
Odds: 1.96 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.68
Event date: 27 January
