Monfils – Raonic

Gael Monfils will take on Milos Raonic in what is, on paper, the most evenly matched Australian Open quarterfinal – even if Raonic isn’t priced too high, at just 1.35 – 1.40.

Credit to Monfils for reaching this stage and losing just one set to do it, but objectively speaking Monfils had a dream draw. Luck really embraced Gael in Melbourne, as Monfils had to play Sugita, Mahut, Robert and Kuznetsov in the first 4 rounds – none of them Top 60 players! His toughest match and the only one that was relevant was against Kuznetsov in the first round, as the Russian showed some great tennis this week. Gael won in 4 sets, but the match was extremely close and Kuznetsov almost managed to force a decider. Gael also hurt his fingers after a characteristic dive.

Milos Raonic claimed one of the biggest and most impressive wins of his career in the previous round, defeating Wawrinka 3-2 after leading 2-0. The level of tennis from Milos was excellent, but the most impressive feat was the way he hold his nerve to win the 5th set after losing that 2 set advantage. The Canadian is undoubtedly at the top of his game right now. The two sets lost to Wawrinka were the only sets he lost in the last 7 matches, a run which included the Brisbane title with a 2-0 win over Federer in the final.

The Canadian seemed to lack something last year, particularly on the mental side of the game as he was unable to take it to that next level and contend for a Grand Slam. However, he is showing signs of greatness for 2 years now and the way he’s playing right now, it seems like he’s getting closer to that superstar level. He’s certainly at the top of his game in this start of the season.

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Gael Monfils leads 2-0 in the Head 2 Head department (1-0 on hard), but the two meetings were in 2011 and 2013, with Raonic far from his current level – so I reckon the Head 2 Head does not hold much relevance here.

I can see Monfils putting up a fight, but I can not see him realistically challenging for victory. The frenchman had a draw that happens once in a lifetime at best and he did not show anything special. A couple of points here and there against Kuznetsov and who knows how a potential 5th set could have gone. It also remains to be seen if the cut that Monfils suffered to his fingers will have a negative effect. It could have, it had a negative effect short-term in his Kuznetsov match, but he recovered and I think he’ll be fine. But it’s a question mark.

Milos has really taken it to the next level, while Monfils has not and is still some way off of his potential. Raonic dominated Wawrinka in most aspects of the game except for the backhand, of course, and maybe movement, so I can’t see what answers can Monfils come up with. Raonic is not just serve, his forehand is brilliant, his volleys have improved immensely as well, he’s moving great and he takes the right decisions on the court. You really need to play at your absolute best in order to beat this guy right now and even that might not be enough if you are not Federer, Djokovic or maybe Nishikori or Murray.

Look for Raonic to come in with his game face again and with the mental strength he showed against Wawrinka, he surely won’t be bothered by Gael’s antics. Monfils might win this in the highlight reel, but Milos will do the business as usual and win in no more than 4 sets.

I oscillated between a game handicap and a set handicap, but eventually my tip will be Milos Raonic to cover the 1,5 set handicap. Lower odds than for a game spread, but more security. Odds going down big time. Prediction: Gael Monfils – Milos Raonic 6-7 3-6 5-7.

Pick: Raonic -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.76 @ Betsafe
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.84
Event date: 27 January