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A red hot England will square off against a rusty Irish side at Twickenham, in Round 3 of the Six Nations, with the hosts looking for a win that would keep their Grand Slam dreams alive.
England looks almost unstoppable right now, as the team bounced back in brilliant fashion after the disappointment in the World Cup (where they were not as bad as people made them out to be). With Eddie Jones at the helm, England defeated Scotland 15-9 and Italy 40-9, both times on the road in very hostile enviroments. Needless to say that the defense looked superb, as did the entire overall play and you would be hard pressed to find a weakness in this team. England is clearly the favorite to win the Six Nations and could do it by winning all matches to claim the Grand Slam as well. Wales is the only team that can match them now.
Ireland has been the biggest disappointment in this years’ Six Nations. The Shamrocks were expected to struggle a bit after losing players via injuries and retirements, but their level of play so far has been really low. The 16-16 home draw against Wales in the first round was a good result, but after seeing Ireland perform against France, it became clear that the Wales draw was a fluke (facilitated by a surprising 13-0 early start). Ireland’s 9-10 defeat in France was horrible, one of the poorest rugby matches you will find at this level. France was really weak and still managed to demolish the Irish scrum in the last 25 minutes in order to claim victory. There’s simply no cohesion and no heart in Ireland’s game right now.
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Team news & lineups:
Eddie Jones will make 2 changes compared to the lineup that won in Rome, but only one because of injury (Launchbury). Ireland has much more problems. Along with some old injuries, the Irish have now confirmed that Sean O’Brien, Mike McCarthy and Dave Kearney are out for the entire Six Nations. Jared Payne is also out for today. Particularly the injury of O’Brien, one of Ireland’s most important players, will be a huge blow. With so many problems, the visitors have been forced to name two uncapped players in the starting lineup.
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Anthony Watson, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath
England has been a nightmare matchup for Ireland in recent years, as the Three Lions defeated the Shamrocks in 5 of the last 6 matches, even though Ireland was generally a better team than England in this time frame (which is not true anymore, obviously). However, Ireland won the last Six Nations meeting, 19-9 in Dublin last year.
Ireland’s offense was non existent in the last two matches and now they have to face an almost perfect English defense, so obviously the signs are not good. Ireland’s scrum was embarrassed by France and it`s very likely for this to happen again against an even stronger English scrum. There is really nothing that can give Ireland confidence ahead of this clash, as they are second best in virtually all aspects of the game. The injuries to key players will also hurt Ireland immensely.
The matchup at fly half seems probable to facilitate an English win as well. Irish No.10 Jonny Sexton has never been as good as his predecessor Ronan O’Gara, but he was a class fly-half at one point. However, lately he has been a disaster, he was annihilated by the French and England’s manager Eddie Jones suggested they will be targeting Sexton as well, especially since he`s not fully fit. If Sexton has another poor game and England dominates the scrum, as expected, I would not be surprised if this turns out into a humiliating blowout for Ireland.
My tip is England to win and cover the 8,5 point handicap. My only problem with this bet is that odds on England dropped a lot since they were put on two weeks ago, but it`s only natural for that to happen, especially with all the injuries being confirmed for Ireland – injuries that make them a much weaker team. Yes, some value has been lost, but the 8.5 handicap line is still well within England’s reach, as I expect the hosts to win by 15+. Full of confidence and with a packed stadium behind them in their first home match of the tournament, they will surely go for the kill, not shying down from a big win if the opportunity is there. For all the above reasons, I will invest 10 units. Prediction: England – Ireland 31 – 11.
Pick: England -8,5
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 27 February
