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Monday night Serie A football will feature Lazio hosting Sassuolo at Olimpico, in Rome.
Both teams come after a mixed season, with not so many achievements. Both teams are still chasing the Europa League spots. This year, because Juve and Milan will probably play the final of the Coppa Italia and both of them are in European spots, one more spot will be free for a team to enter the EL playoffs. So this is the objective for these 2 teams.
Let’s take a look at stats. Lazio has 50% games with over 2.5 goals and Sassulo has just 42%. This does not look good for our bet, but let’s take a closer look. First of all Lazio’s defense is a joke. They continue to miss Gentilletti and de Vrij and also have Radu doutbful. They can put a competitive back line, but it’s still not the same as with the missing players fit.
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Sassuolo will miss Missirolo, a very mature midfielder that helps break up the opponent’s attack. Also they are a very offensive team, by nature. Their best players are upfront, in attack, with Berardi, Sansone, Defrel (who scored 2 goals last round). The same thing can be said for Lazio, with Klose, Djordjevic, Candreva, Mauri, Kishna, Keita, Felipe Anderson, Matri all available.
Lazio has basically 7 players of similar quality capable and fit to play in attack, so even the substitutes can add huge value in attack. Thats’ what i like about them.
Over 2.5 goals is the bet for me here. Odds are very good because the stats are not necessarily indicating this outcome, but I explained my reasoning and I think the bet will be a winner. Good luck!
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.14 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.12
Event date: 29 February
