Espanyol – Rayo

Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano will square off in a match that will have a huge impact on their chances of survival in Primera Division.

After a run of 8 losses and 2 draws in 10 games in all competitions, Espanyol recovered to win against Deportivo and Gijon, seemingly getting back on track. However, they proceeded to lose 0-3 at home to Betis last round, putting the pressure back on manager Galca and being drawn back in the relegation battle. Espanyol is currently 15th in La Liga, just 2 points above the relegation zone. They defended dreadfully recently, allowing 18 goals in the last 6 matches!

Rayo Vallecano is sitting on the 17th place, 2 points behind Espanyol and tied for the first relegating position. The visitors are on the back of a 1-5 heavy defeat against Barcelona, playing yet another high scoring game – their 4th game in a row with at least 4 goals. Nevertheless, Rayo actually played some good football lately. Prior to the Barcelona loss they were on an impressive run of 7 matches without a defeat.

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Team news & lineups:

Canas, Arbilla and Sylla continue to miss out for Espanyol. Rayo will be again without Rat, Ebert, Cobeno, Hernandez, Miku and Tono, but they will have to also deal with the suspensions of Iturra and Llorente.

Espanyol Barcelona: Pau – Duarte, Gonzalez, Lopez, Alvarez – Diop, Sanchez – Perez, Abraham, Asensio – Caicedo

Rayo Vallecano: Carlos – Quini, Castro, Crespo, Tito – Baena, Trashorras – Embarba, Piti, Bebe – Manucho

Rayo Vallecano seems more than capable to win points in Barcelona, but I am not comfortable betting on them considering their weakened lineup and the fact that Espanyol is rather unpredictable. Instead, I will bet on goals, a choice that really makes sense here.

Both sides are very offensive minded and own dreadful, error-prone defenses – the worst two in the league. Espanyol scores 1 goal per game but concedes 2 goals per game, while Rayo Vallecano finds the net an average of 1,4 times per match, but also allows 2,15 goals per game. Pretty telling statistics.

Indeed, this is a crucial match which nobody can afford to lose, but both teams are so poor at the back that they can not play a pragmatic, defensive match. Rayo will also have to improvise with Quini and Crespo in the back four, two players that have been far from impressive the last times they came on.

Espanyol, at home and desperate to win, should be able to find the net against the worst defense in the league, which is also weakened by injuries. On the other hand, Rayo Vallecano scores against pretty much everybody, including Real Madrid or Barcelona, home or away – so they should bang in one or two against a poor Espanyol team. My tip will be over 2,5 goals instead of both teams to score because of better odds and because Espanyol seems capable to lose 3-0 or 4-0 to anybody. Prediction: Espanyol – Rayo Vallecano 2-3.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.75 @ 18Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.75
Event date: 7 March