Ireland – Italy

Ireland will host Italy in the 4th round of the Six Nations, with the Shamrocks desperate to avoid a potential shocking Wooden Spoon finish.

Ireland is second to last in the standings with a single point, courtesy of a home draw against Wales in the first round. The hosts were looking for a historic third Six Nations title in a row this season, but retirements and injuries weakened their squad. Even, so they were expected to play much better rugby. Since taking a quick 13-0 lead in the first match against Wales, Ireland was very poor. They barely got a draw in that game, played an ugly match in France and showed some glimpses of quality against England, but they eventually lost 10-21. There’s just no edge in this team, they are one dimensional and struggle to find solutions in offense.

Italy performed admirably in the first match in Paris, losing by just 2 points. It was a match they deserved to win, but it might well end up being their only highlight of the tournament. Italy hasn`t been able to show any progress in the last couple of years, this is the worst team they had in a long time and signs are not good. Their scrum is not as strong as it used to be – old age and retirements being the main reason for it. After France, Italy lost twice at home – 9-40 to England and 20-36 to Scotland. It has to be said that they were competitive for long stretches in both games and did not deserve to lose by so much (had an honest shot against Scotland), but they collapsed physically towards the end, as always.

Ireland won 12 of the last 13 Head 2 Head meetings – including the last three, in which they allowed a combined total of just 19 points! The most recent match was at the Rugby World Cup, where a Parisse – led Italy put on a very surprising fight, losing 9-16 in a match that was expected to be an utter demolition.

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Team news & lineups:

Ireland will make two changes to the starting XV compared to the England match, but they continue to miss key players, most notably Sean O’Brien and Rob Kearney. Italy has a trio of new injuries which will represent a big problem: Gori, Ghiraldini and Furno are out.

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

Italy: 15 David Odiete, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Edoardo Padovani, 9 Guglielmo Palazzani, 8 Sergio Parisse, 7 Alessandro Zanni, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Marco Fuser, 4 George Biagi, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Davide Giazzon, 1 Andrea Lovotti

Ireland scored just 35 points in 3 matches and yet they are favored by 24 points today, with the under / over line at 49 points. Sure, they will beat Italy and will probably do it by around 20 points, but I can`t see them scoring more than 35 and a handicap bet on Ireland would be risky. On the other hand, Ireland did defend well in this tournament and should not allow Italy too many opportunities, especially in Dublin. A bet on points seems really good considering how high the line is.

Look for a competitive first half of rugby, with a physical play by the Italians which should frustrate Ireland. I can fully see a scoreline like 11-6 at half time. The Italians will probably crumble in the second half, as they always do late in games and late in tournaments. They will allow a few tries, but will probably pose zero offensive threat.

I would not be shocked if Italy does not score a try here and I surely don`t expect them to score more than 1. Ireland on the other hand will have difficulties breaking down this hard working, resilient Italian team, especially in the first 50 minutes or so. They could not do it in the World Cup, when they were much stronger, so they are unlikely to do it now, when their offense is so predictable and one dimensional. Parisse was absolutely brilliant for Italy in that RWC game, hurting Ireland badly and I expect him to be a huge factor in limiting the score today, again.

My only worry is that Italy’s new injuries will have a big impact on their performance, but Ireland does not look like a team that can score at will against anybody. Italy will play with heart and will give them a fight – still, in the end it should still be an easy win for Ireland considering that they defend very well and Italy is very poor this year. My tip is under 49,5 points. Prediction: Ireland – Italy 32 – 9.

Pick: under 49,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 12 March