England – Wales

England and Wales will square off at Twickenham in the biggest match of the 2016 Six Nations – a mammoth clash that has everything from rivalry to revenge and a trophy on the table. The winner of this match will most likely win this years’ tournament and England will also be desperate for revenge after Wales knocked them out of their home World Cup.

Exiting the 2015 RWC in the group stages was heartbreaking for England and Wales was the team that made it happen, with a brilliant comeback victory at Twickenham. However, England played pretty good rugby in that tournament and have managed to build on that. With a new manager, Eddie Jones, England has been the dominating force so far in the Six Nations – beating Scotland (15-9), Italy (40-9) and Ireland (21-10) in pretty convincing fashion. However, they were not perfect – their biggest test was two weeks ago against Ireland and they could not quite put a weak Irish side to bed. The match was close late on, but a bit of fortune and better overall quality got England over the line with a 21-10 win that can not be questioned.

Wales played well all tournament, but a lack of finishing touch resulted in two close results in the first two matches – a draw with Ireland and a 4 point win over Scotland. Wales was a little more effective in beating France 19-10, another game which they dominated. The draw in Ireland has cost the Welsh, as they now come to Twickenham needing a win, otherwise the Six Nations trophy will very likely go England’s way. Nevertheless, the Welsh can definitely do the job. They have an established, experienced team which proved itself year after year and they have played some great rugby in this tournament as well.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will use the same lineups they fielded in the last round. Tuilagi is fit again for England but will only be on the bench, while George has been left out of the squad due to injury. For Wales, Charteris, James and Webb come back from injury as substitutes, which could give Wales an edge in the second half.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Anthony Watson, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Rob Evans

The two sides alternated wins and losses in recent meetings, with each side claiming 4 victories since 2011. However, Wales won 4 out of the last six and most notably defeating England here at Twickenham in the 2015 World Cup – a superb 28-25 fightback victory that ended up sending England out of the competition.

Ireland was within 5-6 points for virtually their entire match at Twickenham in the last round and if a weakened Ireland team was able to challenge England, I expect Wales to be a far bigger threat – potentially even causing the upset.

Fact is that these two sides seem very evenly matched right. They are both playing brilliant rugby and at a neutral venue nobody could claim favorite status, even though I would go as far as saying that Wales actually might have an important edge – the boot of Dan Biggar, which will be a crucial factor in a match likely to involve a lot of kicking and penalties. Farrel could also be a liability for England against Roberts, so this important 1-2 punch at the 10 and 12 positions could end up being England’s downfall – as the two sides are evenly matched in pretty much all departments.

The hosts are a tiny bit overrated after their first 3 matches, while Wales was more dominant in their first 3 games than the scoreline suggests. Home court advantage might get England over the line today, but I really do not think it will be enough to get them 7 extra points. The odds on England are rubbish and the handicap line is incredibly high, this should be at no more than 3,5 points here – so I am happy to bet on the visitors to cover. My tip is Wales +6,5 handicap. Prediction: England – Wales 20 – 19.

Pick: Wales +6,5
Odds: 1.95 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.50
Event date: 12 March