Sevilla – Basel

FC Sevilla takes on FC Basel in a tricky Europa League last 16 match, as the 0-0 result in the first leg was not a particularly great result for the Spaniards.

Sevilla went to Switzerland knowing that they had a very tough test on their hands, given their awful form on the road. Sevilla has not won a road game in Europe or in La Liga this season, but they played better than expected in Basel. It was a close match, with Sevilla actually holding more of the ball and arguably having the bigger chances. They failed to score an away goal, which is never a good thing, but they will be confident coming back at home.

FC Sevilla won the last 16 matches played at home in all competitions! 12 of those 16 wins came with a clean sheet and 11 of the last 13 came by 2 or more goals – really impressive statistics. The hosts are also on the back of a beautiful 4-2 victory over Villarreal, so they are looking pretty good right now.

Basel will be happy with keeping a clean sheet at home, but they would have probably liked to win that game, knowing that Sevilla is a totally different team in Spain. Coming into this reverse leg with no advantage, Basel will absolutely need to find an away goal – but one might not be enough. Even two were not enough in the last round, when they lost 2-3 at St Etienne. The visitors are on the back of a 4-2 win over St Gallen, another dominant showing in Switzerland, where they are virtually champions already.

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Team news & lineups:

N’Zonzi, Pareja, Andreolli and Vitolo are out for Sevilla, while Krychowiak is doubtful. Basel will have to do without Samuel, Bjarnason, Sporar, Boetius and Akanji. Also, Degen is highly doubful, while Lang and Vaclik might miss out as well.

FC Sevilla: Soria – Coke, Rami, Kolodziejczak, Escudero – Iborra, Cristoforo – Konoplyanka, Banega, Kkrohn-Dehli – Gameiro

FC Basel: Vaclik (Vailati) – Traore, Suchy, Safari, Xhaka – Fransson, Zuffi – Steffen, Delgado, Embolo – Janko

With Sevilla being so, so strong at home and with Basel struggling with injuries and suspensions, chances are that the hosts will qualify without too much stress. Basel is definitely a good side, but if they could not impose their game in Switzerland, it`s unlikely they will do it on the road, against arguably the most dominant home team in World football.

The visitors will need to use a great deal of improvisation in defense. There`s a small chance they might be without regular keeper (Vaclik) and a big chance they won`t have regular right back (Lang). Walter Samuel is suspended, Akanji is injured, Degen will most likely miss as well. We`re talking 4 regular defenders (the keeper will probably start) being unavailable and it will be very difficult for Basel to resist at the back in these circumstances.

My tip on this one is FC Sevilla to win with a 1 goal asian handicap. Getting a 2+ goal victory against an experienced FC Basel team will not be very easy, but if Sevilla can’t do it with pure dominance, they will have a great opportunity to do it in the end, when Basel will have to go all out attack, exposing their make-shift defense. Obviously, I am counting here on the fact that Sevilla will claim a 1 goal lead sooner or later – something which looks very likely to happen. Prediction: FC Sevilla – FC Basel 2-0.

Pick: Sevilla (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.75 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.75
Event date: 17 March