Dinamo – Pandurii

Dinamo Bucharest will take on Pandurii Targu Jiu in the third round of the Romania Liga 1 playoffs. Pandurii is currently 3rd in the standings, two points above Dinamo, who is 4th. Both teams are involved with good chances in the fight for the title.

After the Winter break, Dinamo started with two convincing wins and two decent draws against arch rivals Steaua, before apparently losing form in the last week or so. The Red Dogs were destroyed in the League Cup by one of the worst teams in Romania, Chiajna (0-3) and that was mostly blamed on the fact that Dinamo played a lot of second string players. However, they went on to finish 0-0 against Targu Mures last weekend – the worst team in the playoffs, who was unable to field 5 regulars due to suspension. Manager Rednic rallied the troops ahead of this game, stating that a win is mandatory if the team wants to keep challenging for the title.

Pandurii Targu Jiu are coming after a 1-1 home draw against Viitorul, arguably the worst performance of 2016 for today’s visitors. They should have lost that game and there`s increasing talk about their low morale, as the team just entered a massive financial crisis. Nevertheless, Pandurii is undefeated in 5 matches in 2016 (3 wins, 2 draws), playing some pretty good possession football.

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Team news & lineups:

Dinamo has a fully fit squad available for the first time in 2016. Batin and Moldoveanu are unavailable, but they are bench warmers at best. Pandurii will also be able to field the best lineup, as they don`t have any injuries or suspensions.

Dinamo Bucharest: Cerniauskas – Hanca, Puljic, Mevlja, Filip – Anton, Ekeng – Rotariu, Bicfalvi, Palic – Gnohere

Pandurii Targu Jiu: Stanca – Ungurusan, Vasco Fernandes, Sapunaru, Grecu – Nistor, Ropotan – Mrzljak, Radut, Nicoara – Hora

The Romanian Liga 1 is not a competition in which many goals are scored and these playoffs so far produced low scoring, tight matches. The stakes are high, every point counts and nobody wants to take risks. However, I believe this game has an honest shot at going over 2,5 goals.

Pandurii is a team that does not shy away from playing attacking football, while Dinamo is in a position which forces them to play for the win, as coach Rednic suggested. The Red Dogs scored only 1 time in the last 4 matches in all competitions, way below their possibilities and the manager made it clear – they will play to score goals and to win. Obviously I don`t expect an all out attacking game from either team, that won`t happen – but I also don`t expect a classic 0-0 or 1-0 Liga 1 playoff game.

A very interesting fact is that these two teams are always involved in high scoring matches. In the last 9 meetings, an average of 4 (four!!) goals have been scored per game. 8 of those 9 games saw over 2,5 goals and the other result was 2-0. There were also four meetings this season: 2-2, 2-0, 3-2 and 2-1 (3 Dinamo wins and 1 draw).

Considering Dinamo’s intentions to play a reasonably offensive game, the recent H2H results and Pandurii’s open style of play, a high scoring match is clearly possible. Sure, it`s not a lock, but the odds are definitely worth the risk. My tip is over 2,25 goals to be scored. At odds over evens, there`s no value lost compared to the over 2,5 bet, so the extra security is worth it. Prediction: Dinamo Bucharest – Pandurii Targu Jiu 2-1.

Pick: over 2,25 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.48
Event date: 20 March