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Denmark and Iceland will square off in an International friendly match set to be played in Herning. The hosts are rated as 1.85 odds favorites by the bookies, despite Iceland’s amazing Euro 2016 qualifying campaign.
Denmark narrowly missed qualification to Euro 2016, despite the fact that they were in a very good position with 3 games left to go in the group stage. They failed to win any of those last 3 matches, conceded the 2nd place to Albania and went on to lose a playoff against Sweden, 3-4 aggregate. Overall, Denmark has not won any of their last 6 matches (3 draws, 3 losses). The hosts have a new manager, Age Hareide, who took over from Morten Olsen.
Iceland dominated a group with Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey, easily qualifying from the 2nd place in a remarkable campaign. The visitors affirmed themselves as a truly dangerous side with their fast, reactive style of football and are definitely no fluke. However, fact is that Iceland did not play well lately. They won just 1 of their last 8 matches, a run of games which includes the last 3 group games and 5 friendlies played between November and January. On the other hand, it`s true that Iceland did test many new faces in those preparation matches.
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Team news & lineups:
Both nations called up their best available players for this friendly and will use strong lineups. Notable missing players for Denmark include Krohn-Dehli, Bendtner, Fischer and Jacobsen, while Iceland doesn`t have any important absentees.
Denmark: Schmeichel – Dalsgaard, Kjaer, Christensen, Durmisi – Wass, Hojbjerg – Schone, Eriksen, Jorgensen – Poulsen
Iceland: Halldorsson – Saevarsson, Sigurdsson, Arnason, Skulason – Gunarsson, Sigurdsson, Bjarnason, Hallfredsson – Finnbogason, Sigthorsson
Iceland has not been impressive lately in terms of results, but neither has been Denmark. More importantly, most of Iceland’s poor results came with an experimental team, which won`t be the case this time. The Islanders will field their best lineup here.
Interesting to see how Denmark will look with Age Hareide in charge, but the change of manager might well work against them. The level of chemistry and organization will probably suffer in the first few matches, while Iceland is one of the most cohesive teams in Europe, also playing more friendly matches recently. As such, this looks like a matchup advantage for the visitors.
Denmark is not what it used to be, they have just one difference maker, Eriksen and I don`t think it will be enough against a team like Iceland. Look for the visitors to be tactically sound, defend well and punish Denmark on the break with their fast counterattacks. My tip is Iceland +0,5 handicap. Prediction: Denmark – Iceland 0-1.
Pick: Iceland +0,5
Odds: 2.05 @ 18Bet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.35
Event date: 24 March
Rostick, what do you think about friendly matches? Is it a good idea to bet on them in general? In my opinion it’s much more dangerous. Because of many reasons. What’s your opinion?
Sometimes there’s good value in the odds (especially on underdogs). I think judging matches individually is the best approach. Yes, friendlies are a bit riskier, but there are plenty of friendlies worth betting on. I do however think that stakes must be chosen very carefully in these matches.I almost never bet more than 7-8 units.