Federer – Del Potro

Roger Federer could not have imagined a tougher opponent in his first match after his knee surgery, as the Swiss Maestro takes on a rejuvenated Juan Martin Del Potro in the second round at the ATP Miami Masters event.

Following a semifinal loss to Djokovic at the Australian Open, Federer underwent surgery in order to fix a meniscus tear. Not the most difficult intervention and Roger will soon be back at his best, but he did not play a match in the last two months and had a few weeks without training as well. This, coupled with the fact that any surgery has a big impact on the body (you lose a lot of leg muscle even with the easiest knee surgery), will probably make him rusty for at least a couple of weeks.

Del Potro struggled with much more serious injuries in the last few seasons and before February 2016 he only played 3 matches in 2 years. However, it seems that Juan Martin finally managed to overcome his wrist problems. The Argentinean came back at a very high level last month, despite a very long layoff and is looking really good. His serve is working, his forehand is pretty much the same as before. Sure, he`s not yet at his best, but not far from it either.

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Delpo won 5 out of the 7 matches since his return, all of them in straight sets and most of them by blowing his opponents off the court. His two losses were at the hands of Querrey and Berdych, with Del Potro being competitive both times. Here in Miami he defeated an in form Pella in the first round, 6-0 7-6.

Federer leads the H2H 15-5, but the last 7 meetings all went to a deciding set. The pair has not met since 2013 and it can`t be said that any player has a particular style to give him a matchup advantage over the other.

I can see Del Potro staying competitive in this match. He`s in good form, playing well, feeling confident. He will definitely view this as a massive chance to make a statement.

For Federer, the most important thing is to asses his knee, make sure he`s 100% fit. I do expect him to play well and be fit, he obviously got the best possible treatment and recovery methods – but it`s fair to say that he will most likely not be at his best. Also, Federer is usually more relaxed in the opening rounds and Delpotro has a big serve to keep him in the game. These arguments make me believe that the Argentinean will cover the game handicap set by the bookies.

Del Potro +3,5 is a good bet, but I will take extra security for my tip and bet on Delpotro +4 games. I prefer this instead of the over because there is always the chance for Federer to be way off his usual game, more focused on recovery – in which case Delpo can win in two easy sets. Prediction: Roger Federer – Juan Martin Del Potro 4-6 7-6 6-3.

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Pick: Del Potro +4
Odds: 1.69 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.52
Event date: 25 March