Hungary – Croatia

Hungary and Croatia will square off in an International friendly set to be played at Groupama Arena in Budapest, with both sides preparing for Euro 2016.

The hosts played some very, very poor football in the qualifying campaign for Euro 2016, barely finishing 3rd in a group with Romania, Northern Ireland, Finland and a disastrous Greece. The Hungarians showed little to no quality, were outplayed in pretty much every game against decent opposition and amassed a goal difference of just +2 (11-9) in arguably the easiest group in the history of Euro qualifying. However, they somehow managed to pull off a double win against Norway in the playoffs and advanced to the finals. Hungary was outplayed in both games, having less chances and holding less than 35% possession in each of the two games.

Croatia is coming after a rather comfortable 2-0 home win against Israel, a classic solid performance for today’s visitors and their 4th consecutive win. Despite playing good football in the Euro 2016 qualifying group, posting a statline of 6-3-1 with 20-5 goal difference, Croatia had surprising difficulties in reaching the final tournament. They were 3rd before the last round of qualies, but benefited from a dramatic Norway loss in Italy and finished second.

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Team news & lineups:

Hungary should field the best available lineup, while Croatia will probably miss Srna, injured against Israel. Players like Tozser, Kader, Lovrencsics (Hungary) and Rakitic, Pjaca (Croatia) have not been called up, for various reasons.

Hungary: Kiraly – Fiola, Guzmics, Juhasz, Lang – Nagy, Gera – Dzsudzsak, Elek, Stieber – Szalai

Croatia: Subasic – Vida, Corluka, Lovren, Vrsaljko – Brozovic, Kovacic, Modric – Perisic, Mandzukic, Kalinic

Decent defense and the ability to take their (few) chances are Hungary’s main qualities, also their mentality seems to be very professional, otherwise they wouldn`t have pulled off the Euro 2016 qualification with the poor football they played – it can`t all be about luck. They will need all these qualities if they are to stand a chance against Croatia.

I absolutely can’t see Hungary winning this, they struggle to create chances and that will be a big problem against a tactically sound, vastly superior Croatian side. Simply put, they are just not good enough and they are also not the type of team from which you can expect the occasional upset. However, I do see Hungary snatching a draw. Their fighting spirit and home court advantage are exactly the type of assets which can bring you a result in a friendly match.

Expect Hungary to play a brand of cautious, well organized football, focusing on defense, while Croatia will be patient, not desperate to win at all costs. Both teams are pretty hard to defeat. I`m betting on the draw here, but not without taking security in case of a Croatian win. As such, my tip is Draw – Croatia win no bet. Odds are very good considering the low chances of a Hungarian win. Prediction: Hungary – Croatia 0-0.

Pick: Draw – Croatia win no bet
Odds: 1.72 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.76
Event date: 26 March