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Estonia will look to continue their run of very good results when the team hosts Serbia in an International friendly set to be played in Tallinn.
The hosts had a pretty good Euro 2016 qualifying campaign and were on track for a Top 3 spot before losing their last three matches against Switzerland, Slovenia and England. Eventually they finished with just 10 points in 10 matches, but they really had a chance to qualify and were competitive in most matches – largely because of their defense (Estonia had a 4-9 goal difference in 10 matches). The hosts played 4 more matches since the qualifiers were over – 2 wins against Georgia and St Kitts & Nevis, along with two draws against Sweden (away) and Norway (home, last week).
Serbia is coming after a very good performance in Poland a few days ago. The visitors lost 1-0, but were the better team in that match and were unlucky to lose. Unfortunately for Serbia, nothing is working well for them right now. They lost their previous 3 matches and had a dreadful qualifying campaign for Euro 2016, finishing with just 4 points! True, they had 3 points deducted, but they would not have made any difference.
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Team news: Estonia called up pretty much all important players for this match and will field the best available lineup. Serbia might make a few chances to the team that lost in Poland, but probably not too many. Players like Tomovic, Markovic, Tadic, Nastasic and a few others are not in the squad. Actually, a few players like Tadic or Gudelj are currently refusing to play for the National team, so atmosphere is clearly not good.
Despite the good performance in Poland, Serbia still lost and the National team is in a really bad place. I doubt they will be able to claim a win in Tallinn, always a tough place to play in.
Estonia is in good form, they constantly proved able to snatch results against good teams like Norway, Sweden, Iceland or Slovenia – sides that are on par or even better than Serbia. The hosts defend very well and are a very organized team. Playing at home, they are exactly the type of team that can frustrate you in a friendly, especially if your name is Serbia and you are struggling big time, also missing a number of important players.
All in all, my tip here is Estonia +0,5 handicap, I reckon they have much more than 50% chances not to lose this match. Prediction: Estonia – Serbia 0-0.
Pick: Estonia +0,5
Odds: 2.03 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.21
Event date: 29 March
