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Fernando Verdasco takes on Carlos Berlocq in the first round of the ATP event in Houston, with a pretty fast clay as the surface.
Verdasco is on the back of a 3rd round exit in Miami, losing to Zeballos after previously defeating Chardy and Muller. The Spaniard also reached the 3rd round a week before Miami, At Indian Wells, so he`s in pretty good form right now. However, changing surfaces will be a big problem for Verdascu. He played just one clay court match this season, at the start of February and it was a total fiasco. He lost in the first round to Renzo Olivo, a match I watched, making tons of errors and looking totally out of sync.
Berlocq suffered an injury late last year and had to take a couple of months off in the beginning of this season. He came back two weeks ago in Miami, losing against Tommy Paul, but putting in a decent performance. Berlocq played to matches in qualifiers here in Houston, easily defeating modest opposition, but the match practice was extremely important for him.
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The H2H is tied at 1-1, with Verdasco winning on hard courts in 2012 and Berlocq taking revenge on clay in 2013. The surface in Houston obviously favors Berlocq, even if the clay here has special properties and is a bit faster than what you get in Europe.
Verdasco’s inconsistency, coupled with his lack of matches on clay and the fact that it’s the first round of a smaller tournament, make this a very dangerous match for the Spaniard. He’s one of the most upset-prone players on tour and a hard working, consistent clay courter like Berlocq seems like the worst possible opponent for Nando in the current circumstances.
If Verdasco plays well he should win, but that is a huge “if”. I don’t expect Verdasco to be at his best here and a hungry baseliner like Berlocq should be able to force plenty of errors from him. The Argentinean will be desperate to win this match and knowing his fighting spirit, he will not grant Verdasco any points without running like a rabbit. He will keep forcing Nando to hit another shot and if Verdasco is in “chill mode”, Berlocq has a great chance. The fact that he has two matches under his belt in the qualifiers will also be an important advantage.
My tip is Berlocq to win, it’s clearly not a lock, but surely it must be worth a shot at these odds. I believe he will pull it off. Prediction: Fernando Verdasco – Carlos Berlocq 5-7 6-1 4-6.
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Pick: Berlocq
Odds: 2.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 8.95
Event date: 5 April
