Sunderland – Leicester

Sunderland will take on Leicester City on Sunday afternoon at the Stadium of Light, in what will be a massive Premier League clash for both teams.

Sunderland is sitting on the 18th place, 4 points behind Norwich, but the hosts have 2 games in hand, so the situation is not that bad. Still, Sunderland looks likely to relegate right now, so every game is like a final for them. The hosts have not lacked effort recently, claiming 4 draws in the last 4 matches, but you also have to look at who they played. Meeting Palace, Southampton, Newcastle and West Brom was a very easy schedule and Sunderland probably should have won at least one of those games.

Leicester’s new super pragmatic approach is working wonders, with Ranieri’s side winning the last 4 matches and holding a 7 point advantage at the top of the table. The Foxes are defending very well right now and have been incredibly effective to score a goal week in week out, despite not having tons of chances. Leicester is not risking anything and their last 5 wins came with the same 1-0 scoreline.

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Team news & lineups:

Watmore is unavailable for Southampton, while Leicester is again healthy and Ranieri can field his best lineup. James is the only absentee, with Schlupp being doubtful.

Sunderland: Mannone – Yedlin, Kaboul, Kone, Aanholt – Kirchoff, M’Villa, Cattermole – Borini, Khazri – Defoe

Leicester City: Schmeichel – Simpson, Morgan, Huth, Fuchs – Albrighton, Drinkwater, Kante, Mahrez – Okazaki, Vardy

Clearly the main objective for Leicester over these last few weeks has been not to lose, but they were good enough to also scrape out close wins. I expect the same approach today, especially against a defensive Sunderland team that will definitely put 8-9 men behind the ball, the classic blueprint to stand a chance against Leicester.

With Arsenal drawing yesterday, a result which sent the Gunners out of the title race and with Tottenham playing a very difficult match against Manchester United later in the day, Leicester might find itself satisfied with a draw. I had the same logic last round against Southampton and it proved right, even though my bet was eventually void. Leicester definitely played not to lose and the game should have ended in a draw according to what happened on the pitch.

I do expect Leicester to win another close game, but it won`t be easy. Sunderland is desperate right now and if they defend in numbers, they could snatch a point against a Leicester team that will mainly focus on not losing. Sunderland won just one time in the last 10 matches, so I definitely don`t see them claiming the three points today. That leaves me with two choices. One is Leicester Draw no bet, the other is a draw on the Leicester no bet market.

After much consideration, I will choose the second option, due to the much better odds. I think Leicester to win is more likely than the draw, but not THAT much more likely to warrant betting on 1.55 (Leicester draw no bet) instead of 1.87 (Draw – Leicester win no bet). If Leicester wins the bet will be void, but the draw would give us a decent return of investment.

As such, my tip is a Draw on the Leicester no win market, even though my score prediction is somewhat against my bet. It might not make sense, but I`m just working the numbers here. As I see it, it’s a risk free bet on the draw, taking into account that I`m excluding a Sunderland win (even though, obviously, it`s not impossible). I think Leicester will win, but the draw is almost as possible in my eyes. Prediction: Sunderland – Leicester City 0-1.

Pick: Draw – Leicester win no bet
Odds: 1.87 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.83
Event date: 10 April