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Atletico Madrid will try to overcome a 1-2 first leg deficit in this Champions League quarterfinal and the hosts will be confident with their chances – as Barcelona seemingly hit a slump at the worst possible time.
Atletico played a very good game at Camp Nou, took the lead and was looking good value to claim at least a draw until Torres got sent off late in the second half. Atletico still resisted pretty well, but eventually Barcelona found two goals via Luis Suarez and won the match. The hosts are on the back of a 3-1 win over Espanyol and did not rest any players in that game.
Barcelona won just once in the last 4 matches in all competitions and that was the first leg victory against Atletico – which was facilitated by Torres’ red card in a very close game. The visitors are on the back of a 1-0 loss at Real Sociedad (resting some key players) and must recover quickly, as everything they worked for this season is now in danger. Fortunately for Barca, they always fared well against Atletico, claiming victory in the last 7 H2H matches and losing just once in the last 19 meetings.
Place your bets on Atletico Madrid vs FC Barcelona with the highest odds at Unibet!
Team news & lineups:
Torres and Tiago are out for Atletico, while Savic and Gimenez are doubtful. Barcelona can field the best lineup here, as they only miss Rafinha, Mathieu and Ramirez.
Atletico Madrid: Oblak – Juanfran, Godin, Hernandez, Luis – Niguez, Gabi, Koke – Griezmann, Vietto, Carrasco
FC Barcelona: Ter Stegen – Alba, Pique, Mascherano, Alves – Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta – Suarez, Messi, Neymar
Barcelona has the edge after the first leg and I expect the Blau Grana side to qualify, but it won`t be an easy game and odds on Barca are rather low. I will take a rather unusual approach here and bet on Messi to score.
Lionel Messi has gone 362 minutes without a goal for Barcelona, something which did not happen since 2014. He failed to score in any of the last 4 matches. As a result, his odds to bang in a goal today are pretty high, with many bookies rating Suarez as a more likely goal scorer than Messi.
The Argentinean will clearly recover at some point and this seems like a perfect opportunity, as he is so often the difference maker in big games for Barcelona. More importantly, he has a reputation of scoring against Atletico Madrid, banging in tons of goals over the years. Messi scored 25 goals in 16 different matches against Atletico. They are by far his favorite victim.
Also, Barca’s number ten has not played poorly at all lately, despite not scoring. He could have easily found the net a couple of times. He had 20 shots at goal and 4 on goal in the last 4 matches. He was denied by some incredible saves, most notably Keylor Navas in the El Clasico.
Obviously the fact Messi takes penalties and free kicks is an advantage, especially against a team like Atletico Madrid which fouls a lot and gives away set pieces.
When you take into account all the above, odds on Messi to score seem a bit high and I am happy to take them. My tip is Messi anytime goalscorer and I will invest medium – high stakes on this bet. Prediction: Atletico Madrid – Barcelona 1-2.
Pick: Messi anytime goalscorer
Odds: 2.55 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 10.85
Event date: 13 April
