Federer – Tsonga

Roger Federer and Jo Wilfried Tsonga will square off today for the 17th time, with a place in the ATP Monte Carlo semifinals on the line.

I didn’t expect Federer to be so solid in his first two matches here, as he easily defeated Garcia-Lopez and Bautista Agut after not playing a match in almost three months. I expected the Swiss to be a bit rusty, not only because of the layoff (which was not so long), but because he was coming back after surgery – which always affects you. Sure, Federer did not meet top opposition (he simply owns Bautista Agut), so it will be interesting to see him against a top guy like Jo Wilfried.

Tsonga (who is having a pretty good season) won 2-0 against both Carreno Busta and Pouille, playing some of his classic, steady tennis – great serve and great forehand. His serve was particularly effective, as Tsonga allowed only 2 breaks in these two matches – pretty impressive stat on the slow Monte Carlo clay.

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Federer leads the H2h 11-5 (2-1 on clay). Tsonga won the last meeting, back in 2014, while Federer won their only meeting in Monte Carlo in three sets (also 2014). Neither player likes this slow clay in Monte Carlo, but both guys had good results at some point here.

Federer looked pretty sharp so far this week, but this is his first real test since coming back from injury and he`s playing a guy that beat him plenty of times in the past. We can`t know for sure how effective Roger will be on the court and if he shows weakness, the Frenchman will be there to capitalize.

In the last year or so Tsonga proved multiple times that he can still take on the top guys and defeat them. I perfectly remember the last H2H meeting in Monte Carlo between Fed and Jo, in 2014. Federer was playing great and was a huge favorite against an out of form Tsonga, but the Frenchman was very close to winning it, as he led 6-2 6-6.

Bottom line, Tsonga can win this, no question about that. Will he? That’s more difficult to say, but at these odds I will take the risk.

I wanted to take a break today after my recent horrible form, but in the end I decided to take a shot on this bet, with very low stakes. My tip is Tsonga to win, I reckon he has at least 35% chances here, so this bet with tiny stakes makes sense in my eyes. Prediction: Roger Federer – Jo Wilfried Tsonga 4-6 6-2 4-6.

Federer vs. Tsonga and full Monte Carlo live streaming coverage available at Unibet!

Pick: Tsonga
Odds: 3.50 @ 1xBet
Stake: 2
Possible profit: 5
Event date: 15 April