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Marco Cecchinato and Damir Dzumhur will square off in the second round at the ATP Nastase Tiriac Trophy, played in Bucharest on red clay.
Cecchinato entered the main draw as one of the worst ranked players and considering his poor form, he actually seemed like the weakest player in the competition. Marco lost 5 of his last 6 matches before Bucharest and many believed (me included) that he will lose heavily to Marcos Baghdatis. However, Cecchinato played some really solid tennis to defeat the Cypriot 6-2 7-5. True, Baghdatis was not at his best and looked a bit disinterested in the first set, but he played pretty good in the second and Cecchinato did well to avoid a potential comeback from his opponent.
Damir Dzumhur defeated Romanian wildcard Marius Copil 6-1 3-6 6-2 in the first round, confirming his excellent form – even though he was a bit shaky in the second set. The Bosnian player came to Bucharest on the back of two R16 showings at Miami and Monte Carlo, where he defeated guys like Berdych or Nadal (who retired in the 3rd set).
Dzumuhur suffered a big scare in the first round, when he hurt his knee in the deciding set against Copil, when he was leading 6-1 3-6 2-0 and 15-0. His injury looked so bad initially, that his live odds went up from 1.10 to 7.00 at Betfair (where bets are not void in case of retirement). After a long medical time out he came out sharp and did not seem to have any problems, which was surprising considering that you could see his knee bending on the replays. Nevertheless, there`s no way to know if Dzumhur will be at his best today. He might have ended just match with Copil due to adrenaline, warmed up muscles and trainer intervention.
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In normal circumstances Dzumhur is the clear cut favorite here. He`s the better player, he has been in excellent form this year and played pretty well in the first round here in Bucharest, though he did show weakness to lose that second set against Copil. He also easily defeated Cecchinato in the two Head 2 Head meetings, including in Doha this year. However, I reckon it`s worth speculating the possibility of Dzumhur not being fit.
That knee injury suffered by Dzumhur really looked bad, my first impression was an ACL tear. Even if it proved not the case and he did not show signs of discomfort in the ending of his first round match, it`s a fair possibility that after resting and cooling down, his knee started started behaving differently.
With two Masters Series tournaments and Roland Garros just around the corner, Dzumur will definitely not force the issue if he feels discomfort – especially as a knee injury is the last thing you want to gamble with.
My tip is Cecchinato to win and I recommend betting with a bookmaker which does not void bets in case of retirement, for obvious reasons – even if it means lower odds. Bwin offers 2.85 and I am happy to take this instead of 3.20 – 3.30 at other bookies who void bets in case of retirement (or don`t void them only if 1 set is completed).
I won`t force the stakes, because if Dzumhur is healthy, he is the obvious favorite. But Cecchinato played very well in the first round and should be able to speculate if Dzumhur shows any weakness. Of course, it`s not impossible at all for Cecchinato to win in normal circumstances considering his performance against Baghdatis and taking into account that Dzumhur is no world beater. Prediction: Marco Cecchinato – Damir Dzumhur 7-5 2-0 ret.
Pick: Cecchinato
Odds: 2.85 @ Bwin
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 9.25
Event date: 21 April
