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Southampton will be the more motivated side when the Saints travel to Birmingham to take on last placed Aston Villa, as the visitors are still nursing Europa League hopes, albeit not high.
After losing to Manchester United last round, Villa managed the performance of mathematically relegating with 4 rounds still left to go. The Villans were pretty decent for their level in that match, though they were a bit lucky to only lose by 1. The Villans clearly gave op on the fight in the last weeks – they have now lost 9 consecutive games, scoring just 3 goals in the process. What`s more, the club is sinking deeper and deeper with big problems at the board level.
Southampton’s Europa League hopes suffered a blow last round, with the Saints drawing against Everton, but they still have a shot and will fight for it. Southampton has played very well lately, posting 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 rounds. The draw was on the road at Everton and the loss was also on the road, at Leicester – a match in which Southampton looked very solid and probably deserved a draw.
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Team news & lineups:
Agbonlahor and Amavi (both suspended) are out for Aston Villa. Southampton can`t count on Austin, while Wanyama, Fonte and Gardos are questionable.
Aston Villa: Guzan – Hutton, Clark, Lescott, Cissokho – Sanchez, Westwood – Grealish, Gueye, Ayew – Gestede
Southampton: Forster – Martina, Van Dijk, Fonte, Bertrand – Wanyama, Clasie – Mane, Tadic, Long – Pelle
After relegation became official, one might think that Villa will play without pressure and improve. However, the atmosphere in the club is horrible, so is the form of the players and the quality in the squad is not too high either. This team won 16 points in 34 rounds and I definitely do not expect them to show improvement in these last 4 rounds. Everybody is waiting for the season to be over and most players can`t wait to leave the club.
Southampton wants to finish as high as possible to get more TV money and they want to try and get that last Europa League spot if possible. Considering their motivation, their opponent and how well they played lately, I can`t see the Saints dropping points in Birmingham. My tip is Southampton to win with a 1 goal asian handicap, Villa might collapse even further here and they are no strangers to big losses. Odds are not that great, but I reckon they are playable. Prediction: Aston Villa – Southampton 0-2.
Pick: Southampton (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.04 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.32
Event date: 23 April
