Warriors – Blazers

Golden State Warriors, coming after a record breaking 73-9 regular season and an easy win over Houston, will host Portland Trailblazers in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Golden State suffered a huge scare in the first round series against Houston, when MVP Stephen Curry went down with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Dubs, Steph will only be out two weeks. What`s more, the Clippers, who they were supposed to play this round, suffered injuries themselves, giving Portland the opportunity to reach this stage. Golden State were just fine against Houston, despite playing mostly without Curry, winning 4-1 and blowing out Houston in 4 of the 5 matches – showing yet again why they are the best team in the NBA.

The Trailblazers have arguably been the biggest surprise of this NBA season, reaching the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference despite losing almost all their starters in the off season. Damian Lillard has emerged as a legit Top 10 player in the league and guided Blazers to a 44-38 season. Still, Portland was expected to be knocked out in the NBA playoffs first round by the LA Clippers. They would have probably lost that series, but injuries to LA’s two best players in Game 4, with Clippers leading 2-1, opened the door for the Trailblazers and they eventually won the series 4-2.

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Golden State will continue to be without Steph Curry and the Blazers are one of the few teams that managed to defeat Golden State this season. However, that’s pretty much all that`s going Portland’s way in this game.

Portland might have won a game against Golden State this season (in Portland), but the Warriors won the other three with an average difference of 20,3 points! Sure, they had Steph Curry, but Golden State is still a brilliant team without their leader – and now they also have match practice playing without him. Warriors defeated Houston by 33 points in Game 5, in Curry’s absence, when odds and point spread were pretty much the same as they are now.

With Steph, Golden State would be a 1.05 favorite here with a point spread around 15 points. His absence will matter, but not that much. Warriors would be doomed without him against San Antonio, maybe Cleveland or Oklahoma City, but not against a team like Portland. The Blazers deserve respect, but they do have their limits. They also have two less days of rest compared with GS coming into this match, which won`t work in their favor.

Warriors are on a mission to prove their worth and Shaun Livingston stepped up brilliantly instead of Steph, Iguodala is playing more minutes, things are Ok. Livingston’s defensive qualities could also help keep Dame Lillard quiet. Look for Golden State to play their usual game, hit a load of threes and claim a comfortable win – with Klay Thompson proving he is deserving to be the No.1 option as much as Steph. If Lillard has an off night for Portland this might be a 30 point blowout, but even if he`s hot, I don`t think Portland will endangers Warriors covering an 8 point handicap.

The point spread line is rather low at 8 points and my tip is Golden State Warriors to cover it. They did it in 14 of their last 15 home games (one was a push), with 2 of those games being against Portland. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Portland Trailblazers 117 – 102.

Pick: Warriors -8
Odds: 1.94 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 1 May