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Rayo Vallecano has to win at home against Levante in this last round in Spain if they are to play La Liga football next season, but even a win won`t guarantee that. Rayo also need one of Getafe or Gijon to drop points. Both have much tougher games than Rayo, so if the hosts win, chances are they will stay up. Levante is dead last in the table, already relegated.
It`s really sad and surprising that Rayo Vallecano got themselves in a situation in which they are favorites for relegation going into the last round. Rayo played very entertaining and positive football all season, scoring no less than 49 goals (more than many Top 10 sides) – but they paid the price for their horrible defense, tied for worst in La Liga. The recent run of 3 consecutive defeats also contributed to Rayo’s position. However, you can`t hold that run against them, as they met Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad, losing by only 1 goal each time.
Levante pulled off a shocking win last round, as they defeated Atletico Madrid 2-1, ending their title hopes. Indeed, Atletico did not field a full strength side, but the victory was still impressive – particularly as Levante was already relegated and did not enter the match in good form. However, that victory does not inspire much confidence ahead of today’s clash. Levante was decent at home all season, but they were shocking on the road, especially lately. The visitors have just 1 point in the last 12 away matches!
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Team news & lineups:
Cobeno, Ebert, Tono, Baena, Piti and Ze Castro are out for Rayo, all of them long term. Levante will miss Cuero, Feddal and possibly Orban. Chances are the visitors will field the best available lineup, despite having nothing left to fight for.
Rayo Vallecano: Carlos – Tito, Llorente, Crespo, Rat (Quini) – Hernandez, Jozabed, Trashorras, Bebe – Miku, Guerra
Levante: Marino – Lopez, Navarro, Medjani, Juanfran – Verdu, Lerma, Verza, Morales – Casadesus, Rossi
Despite losing 3 games in a row, Rayo Vallecano is actually in excellent form. Their performances against the best clubs in Spain like Real or Atletico were excellent and they were so close to getting points off both those teams and from Sociedad as well. Now, against an inferior and unmotivated opponent, this is Rayo’s last and biggest chance to claim a win that could safe them from relegation.
Odds at about 1.35 for Rayo Vallecano to win might seem very low, but I don`t think it is the case if we take into account the circumstances. If Gijon has 1.45 to win against a side like Villarreal, it means that Rayo could definitely be priced lower today. Rayo would be a favorite against Levante anyway.
My tip is here is Rayo Vallecano to win with a 1,25 goal asian handicap. I do believe they will put 2-3 goals past Levante, as they are truly an excellent offensive side – but I`m scared to risk betting on them to win by 2 or more straight up without a small insurance, as in a key games like this they might choose to defend a 1 goal lead instead of going for more (though I doubt it).
It would be a shame for a good, attacking team like Rayo to relegate, but I think it won’t be the case. I believe they will win and either Gijon or Getafe will fail to do so. Prediction: Rayo Vallecano – Levante 2-0.
Pick: Rayo Vallecano (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.24
Event date: 15 May
