Djokovic – Murray

The two best players in the world at the current moment will square off in a Masters final for the second time in two weeks, after Djokovic defeated Murray in three sets in Madrid. Andy Murray might feel that he has a better chance to lift the trophy today in Rome, at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia.

Djokovic did not start the tournament on a high note, being challenged by a modest Robert and getting bageled in the first set by Belucci before coming back to win it 0-6 6-3 6-2. There were reports about him having back problems, but Nole seemed pretty healthy in his next two matches against Nadal and Nishikori – even though he could have lost both of those.

However, he was still not at his best. Nadal more or less gifted Nole a 7-5 7-6 win in the quarters. It`s an exaggeration, as both players showed some some great tennis, but point is Rafa was better for most of the match – unfortunately for the Spaniard, he clearly has a mental block against Djokovic after losing so many matches in a row. He got very tight in all important moments and blew big leads in both sets. He simply played 10 times more careful in the big games – if he doesn`t choke in those moments, he wins the match 6-3 6-4. Next, Nishikori exposed Djokovic himself, winning the first set 6-2, before Nole pulled off another comeback. A very close comeback though, as Nole almost lost the match, winning 2-6 6-4 7-6.

Andy Murray has been on a mission here in ATP Rome. Four straight sets wins against Kukushkin, Chardy, Goffin and Pouille, losing only 19 games along the way! He had an easy draw, that’s a fact, but he still had to go trough a red hot David Goffin who was on the back of a 6-0 6-0 win over Berdych. Murray made light work of Goffin with a 6-1 7-5 win. Andy seems even better than he was last week in Madrid, when he defeated Nadal before losing a tight final with Novak Djokovic.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 24-9, including a 6-2 3-6 6-3 win last week in the Madrid final. Djokovic won 12 of the last 13 matches and obviously holds a matchup advantage over Murray, though some of those matches were really close.

The Head 2 Head matchup between Djokovic and Murray is somewhat similar to the one between Djokovic and Nadal (which allowed Nole to steal that QF win), but not that similar. Nadal has a clear mental block against Nole after losing so many matches in a row by large margins. Murray is simply a similar player to Djokovic and loses most H2H matches against him because Nole is just the better player, doing what Murray does, only better. Some matches are very close, sometimes Andy snatches a win, it`s not a particular discrepancy in styles or anything mental.

This time, in this tournament, I don’t think Djokovic is the better player. He struggled from day one, had problems against Robert, got bageled by Belucci, was (slightly) second best to Nadal and lost the first set 2-6 (and almost the match) to Nishikori. He’s definitely playing great tennis, but he was not the best version of himself in either of the matches played this week. I think he would need his best level to defeat this version of Andy Murray.

Obviously Djokovic is Djokovic, the undisputed World Number 1 and he can end up winning this – he`s still the favorite. But it`s hard to argue with the fact that value lies on Andy Murray and that he has a very good chance to lift the trophy today, I`d say in the 50% region. It will be extremely hard for him to get over that final hurdle and win a H2H match against Djokovic, as opposed to losing in the deciding set, but my tip is Andy Murray to win. He was close in Madrid and his chances look much better this week, with Djokovic being below his usual level.

All in all, I`m happy to back the Brit at these odds with pretty high stakes and I can see him winning here. Odds are dropping. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Andy Murray 4-6 6-3 3-6.

Pick: Murray
Odds: 3.25 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 15.75
Event date: 15 May