Warriors – Thunder

Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder will square off in Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference finals, in Golden State, with the Warriors rated as 7.5 point spread favorites by the bookies.

Golden State had to manage playing without Steph Curry for most of these playoffs, but still won 4-1 against Houston and took a 2-1 lead against Portland until the unanimous MVP returned from injury. Steph came back in Game 4 against Portland and had the expected impact, helping Golden State win the series 4-1. Now healthy and rested, Steph is expected to help the Warriors, the best team in basketball, defeat 3rd seed Oklahoma City.

The Thunder had plenty of ups and downs during the season, but they hit maximum form at the right time. OKC defeated San Antonio 4-2 in the last round of the NBA playoffs, despite initially getting blown out in Game 1. The Thunder played at a really, really high level in the next 5 matches. Durant and Westbrook were simply incredible, while Adams was a beast below the rim. Adams, Kanter and Ibacka are expected to dominate under the paint against OKC, like they did in most of the three meetings this season.

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Golden State won all 3 regular season meetings against OKC, but all matches were very close, with OKC nursing 4th quarter leads in each of those meetings. Golden State needed 4th quarter heroics by Steph Curry to win by 8, 3 and 15 points. I can see this series unfolding pretty much the same way, with OKC putting in a big effort and staying close, but with Golden State eventually winning 4-1 or even 4-0.

Nevertheless, I feel the point spread is way too high in this match. OKC was simply brilliant against San Antonio, especially in the last three matches. They have 2 of the best 4 players in the league and are playing their best basketball of the season. Even Golden State can`t expect to have it easy against this lot.

OKC needs to limit turnovers, because they will most likely get extra possessions by out rebounding Golden State – especially with Bogut listed as questionable for the Warriors. If the Thunder don`t turn the ball over, this should be a very close match.

I can see the home side winning, but not covering the point spread. OKC will be extra very focused for this match after getting blown out by San Antonio in Game 1 of the semifinals. They have that experience and want to avoid repeating it, so they will definitely be as invested as possible in this game.

My tip will be Thunder to cover the +9 handicap, I`m buying a point and a half for extra security. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Oklahoma City Thunder 110 – 106.

Pick: Thunder +9
Odds: 1.81 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 17 May