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Indiana Fever will host Phoenix Mercury in what will be the second match for each team in the 2016 WNBA season. Both sides are coming after losses, though the manner of those defeats was a bit different.
Indiana had an awful opening night, at home, against the Dallas Wings (ex Tulsa Shock). The way that match unfolded gives them very little hope for this season. Indiana shot at 46% from the field and 40% from three, both higher percentages than what Dallas Shot. Indiana got outstanding, unexpected performances from a few rookies / youngsters like Tiffany Mitchell, who led the team in scoring with 18 points in her first WNBA game. Meanwhile, the superstar player of Dallas, Odyssey Sims, had a horrible night. Indiana also led by 13 points early.
Despite all the above facts, the Fever somehow managed to lose by 11 points, at home, to one of the weaker sides in the WNBA which was missing two of its best players. Indiana Fever looked helpless in defense, unable to defend anybody without fouling and their ball handling was atrocious, with 19 turnovers. The chemistry / game plan was simply non existent.
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Phoenix is considered the main favorite to win the WNBA title this season, after losing in the Conference finals in 2015 – a year in which today’s opponents, Fever, reached the finals. The main thing that happened is that one of the best players in the history of women’s basketball, Diana Taurasi, came back from overseas after missing last season. She led this Mercury team to a title the last time she was here, in 2014, so she`s expected to do it again around what is mostly the same supporting cast, but alongside a much improved Brittney Griner.
The first match of the season was rather poor for Phoenix, who blew an early lead to lose by 19 points at Minnesota – but Minnesotta Lynx is the reigning champion and one of the two best teams in the league, so it wasn`t all that bad.
Indiana reached the finals last season and took Minnesota to 5 games, but this year Indiana is basically a team that surrounded 37 year old veteran Catchings with rookies and youngsters, in what is Catchings’ farewell season. The team is definitely not expected to get anywhere near the finals again and even a playoff position is doubtful – particularly after what we saw from them in the first match. They also have all star Marissa Coleman, who missed the first game and might come back today, but she did not train properly and her impact will likely be limited, if she will play.
The Fever had a great game in terms of shooting in their season opener and lost to a team that is much, much worse than Phoenix. It`s not that they had an off night, they shot the ball well, but looked confused and unorganized. As such, it`s hard to see how they could win this one, as it seems like even 50% shooting would not be enough for them. There are also a few matchups that work against them, particularly Larkin against the dominant Griner at center.
With Taurasi already playing one game since her return, the chemistry between her and the team should improve today. Look for Phoenix to play a lot trough Griner, dominate under the paint and rely for Diana Taurasi to come up with her individual magic when needed. They can`t afford a 2nd loss in 2 games, while Indiana might need a few solid weeks to sort out the huge problems which were obvious in the season opener.
Phoenix is a clear cut favorite in this match as far as I`m concerned and I can see them winning with ease as long as they don’t have a very poor night. My tip is Phoenix to win and cover the -2 point spread, with maximum stakes. Of course the bet on a straight Mercury win is also worth it at odds ~ 1.75 – 1.80. Prediction: Indiana Fever – Phoenix Mercury 69 – 80.
Pick: Phoenix Mercury -2
Odds: 1.98 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.80
Event date: 18 May
