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Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers will square off in Game 1 of the NBA finals, with the Warriors considered 6 point favorites at home to claim a 1-0 advantage in the series tonight. It will be a highly anticipated and probably a mouthwatering rematch of last years’ finals, when Golden State won 4-2 against a shorthanded Cavs side.
After a reacord breaking 73 win season, Warriors were close to elimination in the Western Conference semifinals. They were down 3-1 against OKC and coming after two games in which they were absolutely dismantled by a Thunder team that was playing out of this world basketball. Defense and rebounding were bad, while Steph Curry did not seem to be totally healthy after missing some time in these playoffs due to ankle and knee problems. However, the Warriors showed immense character and quality to bounce back in that series, take it to a Game 7 and close the deal at home. It really was a great achievement against a team like OKC, though the Thunder did facilitate it by playing horrible down the stretch in Game 6.
Cleveland cruised all year in the pathetic Eastern Conference, sweeping Detroit and Atlanta before going up 2-0 against Toronto, esentially winning 10 matches in a row in the playoffs. Toronto bounced back to tie the series 2-2, exposing some of Cleveland’s problems, but eventually Lebron James and company closed the series out 4-2. They weren`t expected to have so many problems against Toronto, but they won it and did it by utterly dominating the last two matches, so credit to the Cavs.
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This should be a thrilling series. Last year Warriors won the finals 4-2, but Cleveland did not have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, both injured. Now, the Cavs will feel much more confident with those two on the floor, with an improved roster and with Lebron playing arguably the best basketball of his career – though Golden State did win by more than 30 points in the last meeting, in Cleveland, back in December.
Some might say that Cleveland could have an edge in Game 1, due to the Warriors coming after that grueling series against OKC, possibly being drained physically and mentally, while the Cavs are as rested as they could be.
I doubt that will be the case and I actually see the situation in an opposite manner. There will be no physical issue at this level, while the Warriors proved as mentally tough as anybody after coming back against OKC. They will be confident and pumped up and will be on guard to avoid losing Game 1 – they did it against OKC and it almost cost them the series. Also, Cleveland comes into this series totally untested, as they had no real opponents in the East. The adversity and the ultra lowd crowd in Oakland will put them in a position they have not encountered this season.
A problem I see for Cleveland in this series is that since Tyron Lue took over at the start of 2016, the team started falling in love with the 3 point shooting. They actually have made more 3 pointers per game than Golden State in these series, which is crazy considering that GS has the two best shooters in the world, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. If Cleveland will try to win with this style, they will find out that it won`t work against GS like it did against the likes of Atlanta or Toronto. They will not beat Golden State at the 3 point shooting game. Even against Toronto it did not work on the road. So you won`t beat Golden State by jacking up 3 after 3, but you probably won`t beat them if you change your style in the finals either. It will be interesting to see Cleveland’s tactics in this Game 1.
After pulling off such an amazing comeback against an incredibly tough team like the OKC, I expect the Warriors to come out strong today and win rather convincingly. They have been the best team in the NBA all season and I believe the series against OKC was their true test. I expect it to be easier vs. the Cavs. My tip is Golden State to cover a 5 point spread with a 9 unit stake on this bet. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Cleveland Cavaliers 110 – 100.
Pick: Warriors -5
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.93
Event date: 3 June
Very good and objective analysis as always, I agree with most of it, however I do think that conditioning and extra rest for the Cavs will have consequences in this series, but probably not tonight.
I don’t see the Cavs winning game 1 in Oakland because they’ll probably have to go through a defeat to find some proper adjustments, as you’ve very well pointed out, playing the 3 point game against GSW won’t work especially on their home turf.
I also don’t think much of Lue, but their roster is loaded so I still expect this to be a close series because LeBron is LeBron. That being said, I completely agree with this pick, I think it’s going to be a win for GSW, maybe even a double digit one.
My prediction would be 4-2 for Golden State. It should be a great series, but can`t see Cavs putting GS in as much trouble as OKC did. Tyronn Lue is no Billy Donovan and it will all come down to Lebron for the Cavs. However, I was proved wrong before.
They went 4-2 last year as well when shorthanded, I don’t know what to say. Some logic tells me Cavs won’t be anywhere close after facing so much poor competition this season, on the other hand their roster is really good and capable of defending quite well + they’re all healthy. They’re not as long as the Thunder though and that seemed to be the thing that bothered GSW the most, so we’ll see, your prediction might be accurate. I think somehow LeBron forces a game 7 but yea, let’s wait and see.
I like Cavs…Good luck! 🙂