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Host nation France will take on Portugal in the Euro 2016 finals, with the French rated as 2.10 favorites by the bookmakers to win in regular time.
France looked extremely far from being championship material in the first 4 games of the tournament, but stepped it up in the quarters and semis, beating Iceland 5-2 and Germany 2-0. Great teams always come up big in the latter stages of tournaments and it appears as though France is doing just that. However, I`m not sure if that is the case – after all, Germany was arguably better than France in the semis and if it wasn`t for a totally random penalty at the end of the first half, we could have had a different team in the finals.
Portugal somehow managed to crawl their way into these finals, even though their first win of the tournament (in regular time) came in the semifinals, 2-0 against Wales – and that wasn`t too impressive either. It was a boring game that was looking like a draw, until Ronaldo broke the deadlock in the second half with an excellent header. Portugal’s football so far has been ugly, but pragmatic and effective. Tactical consistency, luck, Ronaldo and the surprisingly good form of Nani are the reasons why they are here, despite winning a single game until the finals, which has to be some kind of record.
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Team news & lineups:
Pepe is doubtful for Portugal, but he is expected to return in the first 11 after not playing against Wales. Otherwise, the two sides are free of injuries or suspensions and can field their best lineups.
France: Lloris – Sagna, Umtiti, Koscielny, Evra – Matuidi, Pogba, Sissoko- Griezmann, Girous, Payet
Portugal: Rui Patricio – Soares, Pepe, Fonte, Guerreiro – Sanches, Carvalho, Mario – Silva – Ronaldo, Nani
I don`t expect much action at least in the first half, when the two teams will try to get a feel of the opponent and play as tactically sound as possible. The stakes are just too high.
I can see a draw happening at half time, most likely 0-0. Portugal will try to defend well, play their brand of ugly, pragmatic football, while France has no reason to hurry things. Les Bleus know that if they concede against this Portugal team a comeback would be difficult, so they will try to hold the ball, stay secure at the back, wait for opportunities.
Portugal recorded 5 draws at half time in 6 matches at Euro 2016 (three times 0-0). France recorded 3 draws at half time in 6 matches (all 0-0), but all were in the group stages. Still, the semifinal against Germany would have also been 0-0 at half time as well if not for a fluke penalty in the 45+2 minute.
Since 1994, there have been 11 World Cup and Euro Championships finals. No less than 8 out of these 11 matches saw a draw at half time. In 7 cases, the score at half time was 0-0. Of course, today`s final has nothing to do with past events, but these historic stats do come to confirm the fact that these matches are tense affairs in the first half, with teams feeling each other out, nullifying each other, focusing on defense and with nobody taking risks.
These major finals have rarely been entertaining and have always been very cagey in the first 45 minutes. I see no reason for history not to repeat itself, especially with the type of pragmatic football Portugal is playing.
My tip is a 0-0 draw at half time, it seems to be the logical bet in terms of both stats and common sense. After all, neither of these two sides looks good enough to get a grip on the match right from the off. In terms of who’ll win, France beat Portugal 10 times in a row and won both final tournaments on home soil, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Portugal lucks out into another extra time victory to win Euro 2016. Prediction: Portugal – France 0-0 (2-0 A.E.T).
Pick: Half time 0:0
Odds: 2.25 @ Bwin
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 7.50
Event date: 10 July
