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Malmo held the first spot in the standings during the mid season break in the Swedish Allsvenskan, but the hosts will have a difficult match to start the second part of the season against 4th placed Orebro.
The league has resumed this weekend after a 6 week break and Malmo is at the top of the table, but Norrkoping’s win over the weekend means they are now tied in points with Malmo. The hosts will obviously try to reclaim a 3 point cushion at the top and they have reasons to believe they will. Malmo won 9 out of 12 matches this season in Allsvenskan, including the last 4. They are clear favorites to win the title after a horrible 2015 season, when they finished 5th despite owning arguably the best squad Sweden saw in the last two decades at club level.
Orebro was third in the standings during the mid season break, but they fell to the 4th spot after Goteborg’s win on Sunday. Still, Orebro is just 4 points behind league leaders Malmo and they will try to stay in the mix at the top with a positive result in this match. The visitors are a very solid side and have the ability to upset the odds, like they did two rounds ago against joint league leaders and reigning champions Norrkopping, claiming a 2-2 draw – but that match was played at Orebro’s ground.
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Malmo team news: Malmo will have to play without two crucial pieces in this match: midfielder Lewicki and defender / midfielder Arnason, who were involved in Euro 2016 with Sweden and Iceland respectively. Bench warmers Johansson and Sana are also out of the squad, while new signing Behrang Safari (Basel) is not yet available.
Orebro team news: The visitors will be without Alfred Ajdarevic and Haginge, but neither has been a regular this season. New signing Ferhad Ayaz (Gaziantespor) will not play either.
Malmo’s investments last season did not pay off in the league, but they did reach the Champions League group stages for the second time in a row and the club is in a very healthy situation. This year, things are working much better. The hosts have the best team in the league hands down and this seems to be their season.
However, hosting Orebro will be a very difficult proposition for Malmo. The visitors are a very solid team, well organized and have not lost in the last 5 matches – they will definitely be desperate to avoid a loss today so they can stay in contact with the Top 2 places.
There seem to be premises for an upset in this amtch. With two absolutely crucial pieces missing and returning two action after a 6 week layoff, Malmo might struggle a bit today and Orebro is definitely a team that can take advantage. The hosts could win this match, of course, but it looks much tougher than the odds suggest and if they do, it will probably be close. Last season both meetings were draws and Malmo has not beaten Orebro by more than 1 goal since 2010 (8 Head 2 Head matches) and Orebro was never stronger than they are today.
My tip on this one is Orebro to cover a 1 goal asian handicap and I will place a medium – high stake of 7 units on this bet. Prediction: Malmo – Orebro 1-1.
Pick: Orebro (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.97 @ 18Bet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.79
Event date: 11 July
