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Reigning champions Norrkoping will face Ostersunds in the 14th round of the Swedish Allsvenskan. This match is sandwiched for the hosts between the two legs of their Champions League clash with Rosenborg.
Norrkoping’s title run last season was incredible and the hosts have not lowered the level this year, as they are second in the standings, just 3 points behind Malmo. Despite not having stars and big names, Norrkoping’s team chemistry and discipline makes them one of the top sides in Sweden. They have not lost in 8 matches domestically (5 wins, 3 draws) and have been excellent at home so far (5 wins, 1 draw). of However, Norrkoping have been rather disappointing on Wednesday in the Champions League qualifiers, being second best and falling behing 0-2 before claiming a late goal to keep the tie alive.
Ostersunds ended the first part of the season with two heavy defeats against Sundsvall (0-5) and Malmo (1-4) two months ago, but claimed a huge win when the season restarted last week, 1-0 at home against Jonkopings. The victory saw Ostersunds climb on the 9th place, out of the danger zone, but they are still expected to fight against relegation this season. Despite sitting mid table on the 0th spot, Ostersunds has the 4th worst goal difference in the league and the 2nd worst offense with just 13 goals scored
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Team news: Tkalcic and Nilsson are out for Norrkoping. Some might expect the hosts to rest 2 or 3 guys ahead of the second leg with Rosenborg, but I find that unlikely, as this is a key match for them. Norrkoping’s coach said that he will think about this possibility until game time, but also stated that his team will give the absolute maximum here, despite the match with Rosenborg coming up. Ostersunds will be without Hopcutt and probably Mukiibi.
On paper the visitors are no match for Norrkoping, but Ostersunds will hope to capitalize on the European involvement of the hosts. Traveling to Norway and facing a crucial 2nd leg against Rosenborg next Wednesday might make Norrkoping prone for an upset.
However, the hosts are not the type of team to be dependent on a player or two and they should be able to win this at home even if they ring 2 or 3 changes – which I don`t think they will. After the 1-3 defeat in Rosenborg, this match might actually be more important for Norrkoping – they need 3 points to stay in the title race and will treat this game with full focus. Fatigue could be an issue, but the team just had a 2 month mid season break, so I`m not sure that will turn out to be a problem.
The odds went up from 1.50 to 1.80 on Norrkoping just because of the tie with Rosenborg and I don`t think that is warranted. The price increase is getting out of control and there`s definitely some value to be taken with a bet on the hosts here.
I expect Norrkoping to go around their business like usual and continue their dominance at home, they are by far the better team in this match and have every reason to play with full focus. My tip is Norrkoping to win. Prediction: Norrkoping – Ostersunds 2-0.
Pick: Norrkoping
Odds: 1.79 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.53
Event date: 16 July
