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Ernests Gulbis and Rajeev Ram will square off in a very interesting first round match set to be played at the ATP Masters event in Toronto.
Gulbis hasn`t really done much this season. He had two solid weeks on clay a couple of months ago and that was about it. The inconsistent Latvian is on the back of a clear 4-6 4-6 4-6 loss to Jack Sock in the first round at Wimbledon and does not seem to be in his best form right now. Gulbis has a disappointing 1-5 win/loss record on outdoor hard this season. We know Ernests can find his form in any given match, but we also know he can lose to anybody, any day – which is the more likely scenario.
Rajeev Ram was very solid at the start of the year, he actually played a final at Delray Beach, but his form faded and he had an underwhelming grass court season. A specialist on the green, being in the best period of his career, Ram was expecting big things – however, he won just 2 out of 8 matches played on grass this season, which was a disaster for him, as he always gets most of his ranking points on that surface. Ram is on the back of a second round exit in Newport, where he played decent tennis overall, but not consistently.
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Ram leads the Head 2 Head 1-0 (1-0 on hard), the only meeting being in 2009 at Cincinatti, in the same period of the year like now. Both players are accomplished on hard courts, but Gulbis might be a bit more comfortable, especially as the courts here in Toronto as not super fast. Ram prefers the fastest surfaces, particularly grass.
I like Ram to win this one. Neither player is in good form (Gulbis in a bit better long term form actually), but Ram isn`t the one who has odds of 1.40 to win. It looks like this could go either way, an evenly matched clash between two out of form players, so the odds on Ram look absolutely fantastic. Sure, Gulbis is the more talented player, but how many times does he translate that on the court? Almost never and hopefully this won`t be one of those rare cases in which he plays well.
I`m also counting on what I saw from Ram in the second set of his last loss. He was looking horrible against Dudi Sela in the second round at Newport, but at the score of 4-6 1-3 Ram really started playing well, putting huge pressure on Sela’s last three service games, looking very capable to turn the match around. He missed 7 break points in his last 3 return games and lost, but he was playing his best tennis in that short stretch. Hopefully that means he found his rhythm and can translate it into today.
Motivation could be another factor that weights in favor of Ram. He entered Toronto based on his ranking before Newport. With his ranking plummeting after the grass court season, Ram can say goodbye to ATP tournaments this year if he does not win 1 or 2 matches this week. This can be a factor if we take into consideration how unambitious and unmotivated the talented Gulbis is.
My tip is Rajeev Ram to win, but I advise caution with the stakes. I`m rating this as a 50-50 clash, maybe a small edge for Gulbis, but no way should he be a 1.40 favorite to win. Given how inconsistent the two players are and considering their shaky form, I think it`s better to bet directly on the best value (Ram win), as opposed to handicaps, as anything can happen. Prediction: Ernests Gulbis – Rajeev Ram 6-2 6-7 4-6.
Pick: Ram
Odds: 3.05 @ Unibet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 10.25
Event date: 26 July
