Sousa – Dimitrov

Joao Sousa and Grigor Dimitrov will square off in the 3rd round at the US Open, with both players looking in pretty good form this week.

Sousa lost just one set in the first two rounds, beating Estrella in straight sets before defeating Feliciano Lopez 3-1. This year has not been the best for the Portugese Number 1, but he still produced good results from time to time and managed to maintain a solid position in the Top 40. He`s looking sharp this week and will surely fancy his chances against Dimitrov, even if he is the clear underdog.

Dimitrov is on the back of an excellent showing at Cincinnati, where he played his best tennis of the season and reached the semifinals. Grigor won against Wawrinka or Johnson before falling 1-2 to eventual champion Marin Cilic. He continued to play well here at the US Open, but errors started to creep back into his game in the second round, where he was on the brink of elimination, coming back from 1-2 in sets against Chardy. Overall this seems like a good moment for Dimitrov, who played well below expectations this year, losing a lot of times as a heavy favorite.

Sousa actually leads the H2H against Dimitrov 2-1, but one of his wins was in a futures in 2008 against a very young Grigor, so that doesn`t really count. Sousa also won at the 2013 US Open, while Dimitrov defeated him last year in Kuala Lumpur.

Dimitrov has not been great this year and even if he played his best tennis of the season right before the US Open (he reached the QF’s in Toronto as well, but there it was more due to luck of the draw), there`s no guarantees he will continue in the same manner. He already had some serious problems against Chardy and Sousa is a dangerous opponent, who will be ready to capitalize if Dimitrov does not bring his A Game.

We know that Sousa is never afraid to take on the big boys and he has some massive wins under his belt, so he definitely stands a chance here. I will bet on a straight Sousa win and avoid handicaps or game totals, because this match can go either way – depending which version of Dimitrov turns up (and Sousa can be inconsistent too).

All being said, my tip on this clash is a Sousa win. (Very) Low stakes, as I don`t necessarily expect him to win, but I don`t trust Dimitrov and between these two inconsistent guys anything can happen. Dimitrov is the favorite, but odds are way too high for Joao. Prediction: Joao Sousa – Grigor Dimitrov 4-6 7-6 6-4 2-6 6-3.

Pick: Sousa
Odds: 4.34 @ 1xBet
Stake: 2
Possible profit: 6.68
Event date: 3 September