Romania – Montenegro

Romania will open up their World Cup 2018 qualifying campaign in Cluj against Montenegro, with the two teams being in a group that also features the likes of Denmark or Poland.

After a very poor showing at Euro 2016, Romania made a massive change, bringing in Christoph Daum as the first ever foreign manager in the country’s history. The German coach will not have an easy job, as he manages a team without much individual quality while the expectations in Romania are, like always, high and unrealistic. However, he is off to a good start – the atmosphere in the team is excellent, players are happy with his coaching style and there is a general state of enthusiasm ahead of this clash.

Montenegro did not look good at all over the past year or so. They had a poor qualifying campaign for Euro 2016, claiming just 11 points in an accessible group and things went even worse in the following friendlies. Overall, Montenegro has 1 draw and 5 losses in the last 6 matches. They also made a managerial change, bringing in experienced Ljubisa Tumbakovic, who previously managed in China.

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Team news & lineups:

Romania has a number of key injuries ahead of this match, all of them in the defensive area – Tatarusanu (GK), Chiriches (CB) and Pintilii (DM). Former first choice left back Rat has been left out of the squad. Montenegro will be happy to have its star players like Jovetic or Savic healthy.

Romania: Lung jr. – Sapunaru, Grigore, Moti, Filip – Hoban – Popa, Bicfalvi, Stanciu, Maxim – Andone

Montenegro: Božović – Simić, Baša, Savić, Tomašević – Marušić, Šćekić, Vukčević, Bakic – Bećiraj, Jovetić

Romania is far from being an attacking minded team, but Christoph Daum promised that will change under his reign. Daum stated that he wants his side to play fast, entertaining football, to be aggressive and get the ball back early in the opposition half.

An intelligent man, Daum knows that he has two options to secure his contract with Romania: cater to the public’s wish for offensive football and / or get results. Results will be next to impossible to get, but offensive football is possible. If Daum breaks his word and Romania does not play attacking football he`ll have no chance of succeeding, because as far as qualification is concerned, that will most likely not happen.

I can see both teams scoring in this match. Romania is at home and is a superior side, so they should be able to find the net. Montenegro on the other side, with Jovetic leading the line, could take advantage if Romania opens up more than usual, as Daum promised. The hosts have defensive problems, missing their regular keeper and best center back, while the wing back positions are the biggest problems in the squad.

While we know these international games can be cagey and Romania’s past record can never suggest a high scoring match, I do believe there is a good opportunity for goals here based on the arguments I made above. At odds of 2.50 for both to score, there could well be some value here. I can see a 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 Romania win and my tip is both teams to score. Prediction: Romania – Montenegro 1-1.

Pick: Both to score
Odds: 2.48 @ Unibet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 7.40
Event date: 4 September