Wawrinka – Nishikori

Switzerland’s Stan Wawrinka and Japan’s Kei Nishikori will square off in what should be a mouthwatering semifinal at the US Open.

Wawrinka was in goood form coming into his quarterfinal against Del Potro, but he wasn`t looking particularly great and was an underdog in that match. He pulled off the so called upset, beating Del Potro in 4 sets and many are looking at Stan now like he can produce another grand slam winning run. Still, I am not completely sold on the idea. Stan is still not playing at his top level and his win over DelPo, though deserved, had many favorable circumstances. Stan could have (should have) been 0-2 down in sets and after 1-1, Del Potro lost his nerve and fitness – from that moment on it was obvious that Wawrinka will win even if he does not play his best.

Nishikori was marvelous a couple of days ago against Andy Murray, defeating the most in form player on tour in an epic 5 setter. Kei will now look to reach his second US Open final and he is rated as the favorite against Wawrinka, a position I agree with. Nishikori’s level against Andy has been better than anything Wawrinka produced over the last 10 days. He has also been in better overall form recently, reaching the final at Toronto (beat Wawrinka along the way) and winning the bronze medal at the Olympics.

Wawrinka leads the Head 2 Head 3-2 (2-2 on hard), but Nishikori won the most recent meeting not long ago, in Toronto, in very similar conditions to the ones at US Open. It was a 7-6 6-1 victory. Kei also won the only previous H2H meeting at US Open, a 3-2 win back in 2014.

Despite Wawrinka’s win over Del Potro I still can`t say that Stan is at his best level. He played well, but he was still not in that zone in which he was when he won Roland Garros and Australian Open. Del Potro was the better player in the first two sets and should have been up 2-0, but blew a 4-1 lead in the first. After the second set, Del Potro collapsed mentally and physically, making it easy for Stan to close it out. Wawrinka was very good but far from flawless, still making a fair number of errors, many of them in key moments.

Nishikori on the other hand played some fantastic stuff against Murray. I have to admit there is a question mark in my mind and that`s if Murray wasn’t jaded after playing so much recently. But Kei still played great and his composure in key moments was out of this world. It`s unlikely he will collapse mentally like Del Potro did against Wawrinka.

I will bet on Nishikori to win this and I trust he’s the better player right now, but I`m only confident with betting low – medium stakes. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Kei Nishikori 4-6 6-3 6-7 6-3 3-6.

Pick: Nishikori
Odds: 1.80 @ 1xBet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 9 September