New Zealand – S. Africa

New Zealand and South Africa will square off Saturday morning (European time) in the fourth round of the Rugby Championship. The All Blacks have won 3 out of 3 in dominating fashion so far, while South Africa has looked shaky and barely won a single game via a last minute try in the first round.

New Zealand is simply playing breathtaking rugby right now, arguably the best stuff I have seen in my lifetime. They demolished Australia by a combined margin of 54 points in the first two rounds, but even that was misleading, the margin should have been higher. Last week the All Blacks routed a competent Argentina by 35 points. It was actually their toughest recent test, as Argentina really frustrated New Zealand and was within 2 points at the 50 minute mark. However, just when you thought that New Zealand can be challenged, they unleashed an epic display of Rugby and won the last 25 minutes by 33 points! (33-0). Sure, Argentina collapsed physically at the end, like always and their bench was dirt poor – facilitating that show by the All Blacks.

After splitting two dramatic meetings with Argentina and not looking great, South Africa still seemed like a better, more well oiled side than the struggling Wallabies, ahead of their third round matchup in Australia. Indeed, South Africa raced to an early (albeit very lucky) 14-3 lead, but it was all downhill from there. The Boks were always under pressure and could not create absolutely anything up front. It was a matter of waiting for time to pass, hoping that the lead will be big enough to hold. It was not, as Australia won by 6 points and boy did South Africa make them look so much better than they are. Really disappointing stuff from the Boks and it seems like new coach Allister Coetzee (politically appointed) is not the right man for the job.

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Team news & lineups:

Cane and Cruden are key new injuries for New Zealand ahead of this clash. Aside from them, the hosts will field the same starting 15 as last week. South Africa will also make just two changes to the lineup that lost in Australia, but only one of them due to injury (de Jager is out). The Springboks continue to play without their first two choices at No.10 and that will hurt them again, as Jantjies has proved a bigger or smaller liability in all three matches played so far.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

South Africa: 15 Johan Goosen, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jessie Kriel, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Listen, South Africa has been dirt poor in this tournament so far, particularly last week against the Wallabies. I had a +4 points handicap on them in that match, but even with South Africa claiming a very lucky 14-3 early lead, I was less confident than before the start of the match, as you could see where the game was heading.

#Jantjies killing the #Springboks with these misses. Again. #SouthAfrica in front but scared now. #rugbychampionship pic.twitter.com/N5IvWhkdbw

— Rostick Betdistrict (@betdistrict) September 10, 2016

Do not expect South Africa to come into this match with a positive attitude. They were defensive and poor against Argentina and Australia and will probably not get much better as long as Allister Coetzee is in charge. I expect them to rely again on tackling, defensive kicking and physicality in this match. However, I believe this kind of negative approach will actually save them from a humiliating defeat.

Even in the current state, the Boks still do one thing (very) well – and that’s slowing the game down. I think New Zealand will find it a bit more difficult to play its fabulous style of running rugby than they did against Australia and South Africa, teams which came to play against them – which is rarely a good idea against New Zealand. Add the fact that the handicap line is very high and I think the Boks will cover the spread.

This South African style of play has never quite suited New Zealand. Indeed, the All Blacks have won most of the meetings against the Springboks, but they haven`t won by more than 20 points since 2011 – that was 10 meetings ago! There was another 27 point win in 2007 and those 2 were the only times New Zealand covered today’s spread against the Boks in the last 13 years and 30 meetings! Last year in the Rugby World Cup, New Zealand won the semifinal against South Africa by just 2 points (but, admittedly, South Africa was much better back then).

I would also add the fact that South Africa has a pretty good bench, which made a huge impact in their matches against Argentina. It was not the case against Australia, but you can still expect the Springbok bench to hold its own and not lose the last 25 minutes by 33 points, like Argentina did last week.

One big worry for the Boks is the matchup at number 10. Beauden Barrett is doing incredible stuff for the All Blacks right now, while South Africa’s Elton Jantjies (normally 3rd option at No.10) has been poor throughout this championship and might very well be exposed by his counterpart. New Zealand will definitely win the battle at No.10, but I do trust the South African forwards to slow the game down enough to limit the damage in this department.

All in all, I can see the Springboks tackling well enough and slowing the game down just enough to frustrate New Zealand and lose by a respectable margin. South Africa will probably pose little threat in New Zealand’s half, but they should force some (rare) handling errors from New Zealand with their physicality at the breakdown, get some scrums and penalties, eat away at the clock.

It might seem crazy to bet against this unstoppable All Blacks team, but my tip here will be South Africa to cover the +21,5 point spread. When all is said and done the SpringBoks are still an elite team with elite players and they have the proper style to keep this somewhat respectable. Prediction: New Zealand – South Africa 32 – 16.

Pick: South Africa +21,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 17 September